Using the past to predict the present: Confidence intervals for regression equations in phylogenetic comparative methods
Using the past to predict the present: Confidence intervals for regression equations in phylogenetic comparative methods
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DOI：
10.1086/303327
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发表时间：
2000-03-01
影响因子：
2.9
通讯作者：
Ives, AR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Garland, T;Ives, AR
两种系统发育比较方法，独立对比和广义最小二乘模型，可以用来确定两个或两个以上的性状之间的统计关系。我们发现，这两种方法在功能上是相同的，无论是可以用来进行统计推断的值在内部节点的系统发育树（假设的祖先），估计字符之间的关系，并预测值为未测量的物种。从独立对比导出的回归方程可以放回原始数据空间，包括计算新观测值的置信区间和预测区间。对未测量的物种（包括灭绝的形式）的预测可以越来越准确和精确，因为它们在系统发育树上的位置的特异性增加，这可以大大增加检测的统计能力，例如，单一物种与异速生长预测的偏差。我们重新审视已发表的数据基础代谢率（BMR）的鸟类，并表明，传统的和系统发育异速生长方程显着不同。在新的研究结果中，我们表明，与nonpasserines相比，passerines表现出较低的进化速度在身体质量和质量校正的BMR; passerines也有显着较小的身体质量比他们的姐妹分支。这些差异可能证明单独的，分支特异性异速生长方程预测鸟类的基础代谢率。
Two phylogenetic comparative methods, independent contrasts and generalized least squares models, can be used to determine the statistical relationship between two or more traits. We show that the two approaches are functionally identical and that either can be used to make statistical inferences about values at internal nodes of a phylogenetic tree (hypothetical ancestors), to estimate relationships between characters, and to predict values for unmeasured species. Regression equations derived from independent contrasts can be placed back onto the original data space, including computation of both confidence intervals and prediction intervals for new observations. Predictions for unmeasured species (including extinct forms) can be made increasingly accurate and precise as the specificity of their placement on a phylogenetic tree increases, which can greatly increase statistical power to detect, for example, deviation of a single species from an allometric prediction. We reexamine published data for basal metabolic rates (BMR) of birds and show that conventional and phylogenetic allometric equations differ significantly. In new results, we show that, as compared with nonpasserines, passerines exhibit a lower rate of evolution in both body mass and mass-corrected BMR; passerines also have significantly smaller body masses than their sister clade. These differences may justify separate, clade-specific allometric equations for prediction of avian basal metabolic rates.