Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments
Predicting microbial water quality with models: Over-arching questions for managing risk in agricultural catchments
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DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.11.086
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发表时间：
2016-02-15
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Quilliam, Richard S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Oliver, David M.;Porter, Kenneth D. H.;Quilliam, Richard S.
应用模型预测环境系统中粪便指示生物（FIOs）的浓度对于指导与微生物水质管理相关的决策具有重要作用。近年来，政策制定者对模型的需求越来越大，以帮助为FIO动态提供信息，从而优先考虑环境和人类健康保护。然而，鉴于有限的证据基础上建立的FIO模型相对于其他农业污染物（如营养素），它是必要的，最终用户的FIO模型的期望得到适当的管理。作为回应，本评注强调了与以下方面有关的四个过度关注的问题：（一）模型目的;（二）建模方法;（三）数据可用性;（四）模型应用，在采用任何建模方法预测集水系统的FIO行为之前，必须将其视为良好做法的一部分。针对这些问题，提出了一系列短期和长期的研究重点，以促进更好的模型部署在集水区微生物动力学领域。(C)2015作者由爱思唯尔公司出版
The application of models to predict concentrations of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs) in environmental systems plays an important role for guiding decision-making associated with the management of microbial water quality. In recent years there has been an increasing demand by policy-makers for models to help inform FIO dynamics in order to prioritise efforts for environmental and human-health protection. However, given the limited evidence-base on which FIO models are built relative to other agricultural pollutants (e.g. nutrients) it is imperative that the end-user expectations of FIO models are appropriately managed. In response, this commentary highlights four over-arching questions associated with: (i) model purpose; (ii) modelling approach; (iii) data availability; and (iv) model application, that must be considered as part of good practice prior to the deployment of any modelling approach to predict FIO behaviour in catchment systems. A series of short and longer-term research priorities are proposed in response to these questions in order to promote better model deployment in the field of catchment microbial dynamics. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.