Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492
Earth system impacts of the European arrival and Great Dying in the Americas after 1492
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DOI：
10.1016/j.quascirev.2018.12.004
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发表时间：
2019-03-01
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Lewis, Simon L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Koch, Alexander;Brierley, Chris;Lewis, Simon L.
工业革命之前的人类影响并没有得到很好的限制。我们调查了16世纪末和17世纪初全球大气CO2浓度下降7-10 ppm，全球地表气温下降0.15摄氏度，是由自然强迫产生的，还是欧洲人到来后美洲大规模人口减少的结果，随后的土地利用变化和二次演替。我们定量地回顾了（i）前哥伦布时期的人口规模，（ii）他们的人均土地使用，（iii）1492年后的人口损失，（iv）废弃的人类景观的碳吸收，然后将这些与全球碳下降7-10 ppm的潜在自然驱动因素进行比较。根据119个已发表的区域人口估计，我们计算出公元1492年前的人口为6050万（四分位数范围，IQR 4480 - 7820万），人均土地利用率为1.04公顷（IQR 0.98-1.11）。在接下来的世纪，欧洲流行病夺走了90%（IQR 87-92%）的土著人口。这导致了55.8 Mha（IQR 39.0-78.4 Mha）的废弃土地的二次演替，螯合了7.4 Pg C（IQR 4.9-10.8 Pg C），相当于大气中3.5 ppm（IQR 2.3-5.1 ppm CO2）的CO2下降。考虑到碳循环反馈加上美洲以外的土地利用变化，与15世纪相比，16世纪陆地表面总共增加了5 ppm的CO2吸收，占大气CO2下降的47 - 67%。此外，我们表明，16世纪的全球碳预算不能平衡，直到大规模的植被再生在美洲。美洲土著人民的大灭绝导致了人类在工业革命前两个世纪对地球系统的全球影响。(C)2019作者爱思唯尔有限公司出版
Human impacts prior to the Industrial Revolution are not well constrained. We investigate whether the decline in global atmospheric CO2 concentration by 7-10 ppm in the late 1500s and early 1600s which globally lowered surface air temperatures by 0.15 degrees C, were generated by natural forcing or were a result of the large-scale depopulation of the Americas after European arrival, subsequent land use change and secondary succession. We quantitatively review the evidence for (i) the pre-Columbian population size, (ii) their per capita land use, (iii) the post-1492 population loss, (iv) the resulting carbon uptake of the abandoned anthropogenic landscapes, and then compare these to potential natural drivers of global carbon declines of 7-10 ppm. From 119 published regional population estimates we calculate a pre-1492 CE population of 60.5 million (interquartile range, IQR 44.8-78.2 million), utilizing 1.04 ha land per capita (IQR 0.98-1.11). European epidemics removed 90% (IQR 87-92%) of the indigenous population over the next century. This resulted in secondary succession of 55.8 Mha (IQR 39.0-78.4 Mha) of abandoned land, sequestering 7.4 Pg C (IQR 4.9-10.8 Pg C), equivalent to a decline in atmospheric CO2 of 3.5 ppm (IQR 2.3-5.1 ppm CO2). Accounting for carbon cycle feedbacks plus LUC outside the Americas gives a total 5 ppm CO2 additional uptake into the land surface in the 1500s compared to the 1400s, 47 -67% of the atmospheric CO2 decline. Furthermore, we show that the global carbon budget of the 1500s cannot be balanced until large-scale vegetation regeneration in the Americas is included. The Great Dying of the Indigenous Peoples of the Americas resulted in a human-driven global impact on the Earth System in the two centuries prior to the Industrial Revolution. (C) 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.