Research on the influence mechanism of carbon trading on new energy-A case study of ESER system for China
Research on the influence mechanism of carbon trading on new energy-A case study of ESER system for China
复制标题
碳交易对新能源的影响机制研究——以我国ESER制度为例
DOI：
10.1016/j.physa.2019.123572
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Yin, Huibo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fang, Guochang;Lu, Longxi;Yin, Huibo
基于一种新型的非线性节能减排系统，探讨碳交易对新能源的影响机制。讨论了该系统的动力学行为，并通过数字仿真证实了混沌运动的存在。利用遗传算法-反向传播神经网络对实际系统的量化系数进行了辨识。情景分析结果表明，在一定条件下，碳交易能够带动新能源的发展，其带动效应与一个阈值密切相关。成熟的碳交易可以有效控制碳排放和能源强度。在满足这些约束条件的前提下，更加完善的碳交易市场能够更好地促进新能源的发展。碳交易和新能源对政府管制非常敏感。把握好政府与市场的合理边界，是实现碳交易和新能源可持续发展的关键。(C)2019爱思唯尔B. V.保留所有权利。
This paper attempts to explore the influence mechanism of carbon trading on new energy based on a novel nonlinear energy-saving and emission-reduction system. The dynamics behavior of the novel system is discussed, and the existence of chaotic motion is approved by using digital simulation. With the aid of genetic algorithm-back propagation neural network, the quantitative coefficients of the actual system are identified according to Chinese statistics. The result of scenario analysis shows that carbon trading can drive the development of new energy under given conditions, the driving effect is closely related to a threshold. The mature carbon trading can control carbon emissions and energy intensity effectively. The more perfect carbon trading market can better promote the development of new energy when meets such constraints. Carbon trading and new energy are very sensitive to government control. Grasping the reasonable boundary of government and market is the key to realize sustainable development of carbon trading and new energy. (C) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.