Valid inference for treatment effect parameters under irregular identification and many extreme propensity scores

Valid inference for treatment effect parameters under irregular identification and many extreme propensity scores
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不规则识别和多种极端倾向评分下治疗效果参数的有效推断

DOI:
10.1016/j.jeconom.2020.03.025
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发表时间:
2020
影响因子:
6.3
通讯作者:
Heiler
Heiler
中科院分区:
经济学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Heiler

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本文提供了一个框架进行有效的因果参数的推断,而不施加强方差或支持的倾向得分的限制。特别是,它涵盖了不规则识别的治疗效果参数的情况。我们提供了极限定理的逆概率加权和双重可靠的估计因果或反事实的参数,不依赖于修剪方法。通过构造,这些估计量的极限分布属于α稳定类,这意味着标准的推断方法,如非参数自助法是不一致的。我们提出了一个自适应版本的m-出-n引导,是强大的所有类型的识别和引导聚合方法的最佳m的选择。Monte Carlo模拟表明,修改后的reserve方法相比,在有限样本的传统方法。该方法适用于重新分析的因果关系的影响,右心导管插入术的生存率。
This paper provides a framework for conducting valid inference for causal parameters without imposing strong variance or support restrictions on the propensity score. In particular, it covers the case of irregularly identified treatment effect parameters. We provide limit theorems for inverse probability weighting and doubly robust estimation of causal or counterfactual parameters that do not rely on trimming approaches. By construction the limiting distributions of these estimators belong to the alpha-stable class which implies that standard inference methods such as the nonparametric bootstrap are inconsistent. We propose an adaptive version of the m-out-of-n bootstrap that is robust to all types of identification and a bootstrap aggregation method for the optimal m choice. Monte Carlo simulations suggest that the modified resampling method compares favorably to conventional methods in finite samples. The method is applied to a re-analysis of the causal impact of right heart catheterization on survival rates.
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