Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models
Insights on past and future sea-ice evolution from combining observations and models
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DOI：
10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.10.011
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发表时间：
2015-12
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
J. Stroeve;D. Notz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Stroeve;D. Notz
我们讨论了目前的理解，过去和未来的海冰演变相结合的模型模拟和观测推断。在这样的综合分析中，模型使我们能够加强对所观察到的海冰演变背后的理解，而观测使我们能够评估模型在真实的世界中如何真实地代表海冰演变的过程。因此，观测和模型相结合，为海冰在地球气候系统中的作用提供了强有力的见解，并可以为与冰盖未来演变有关的政策决定提供信息。我们发现，模型和观测结果一致认为，北极海冰对全球变暖的敏感性和观察到的撤退的主要驱动因素。相比之下，未来海冰演变的不确定性范围的稳健减少仍然很困难，特别是因为观测记录往往太短，无法稳健地检查内部变异对模型偏差的影响。基于过程的模型评估和基于季节预测系统的模型评估为克服这些局限性提供了有希望的方法。
We discuss the current understanding of past and future sea-ice evolution as inferred from combining model simulations and observations. In such combined analysis, the models allow us to enhance our understanding behind the observed evolution of sea ice, while the observations allow us to assess how realistically the models represent the processes that govern sea-ice evolution in the real world. Combined, observations and models thus provide robust insights into the functioning of sea ice in the Earth's climate system, and can inform policy decisions related to the future evolution of the ice cover. We find that models and observations agree well on the sensitivity of Arctic sea ice to global warming and on the main drivers for the observed retreat. In contrast, a robust reduction of the uncertainty range of future sea-ice evolution remains difficult, in particular since the observational record is often too short to robustly examine the impact of internal variability on model biases. Process-based model evaluation and model evaluation based on seasonal-prediction systems provide promising ways to overcome these limitations.