Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands
Crop and farm level adaptation under future climate challenges: An exploratory study considering multiple objectives for Flevoland, the Netherlands
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DOI：
10.1016/j.agsy.2016.12.016
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发表时间：
2017-03-01
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
van Ittersum, Martin K.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mandryk, Maryia;Reidsma, Pytrik;van Ittersum, Martin K.
气候变化表现为平均气候条件的变化以及极端天气的频率和严重程度的增加。据预测，极端天气对农业生产的影响往往大于气温的平均上升或降水量的平均变化。为了科普未来气候变化的影响，农民必须在作物和农场层面采取适应措施。适应措施的选择取决于农场资源、农场现有布局和绩效以及农民的目标。在这里，我们提出了一种方法来评估作物和农场水平的措施，以适应气候变化和极端事件，考虑到农民的不同目标的重要性。我们使用了多目标优化模型来生成替代农场计划，并评估作物和农场层面的适应措施对农场绩效的影响，以最大限度地提高农场经济效益（毛利率）和土壤质量（土壤有机质平衡）;这些目标以前被认为是对农民最重要的。研究了两种当地情景：一种是基于2050年全球气温上升2摄氏度，包括空气流通变化导致夏季干燥，另一种是基于全球气温上升1摄氏度，空气流通没有变化。我们的研究结果表明，在弗莱沃兰（荷兰）省的六个调查耕地平均气候变化提高农场的绩效，在农场的经济成果。改善的程度因情景和农场而异，取决于种植模式。与此同时，极端事件可能逆转平均气候变化的积极影响，并可能造成巨大风险。在提高农业经济效益和有机物平衡方面，调查农场需要作物和农场水平相结合的适应措施。在以块根作物为主的系统中，转向（更多）冬小麦是在气候变化和极端事件下改善有机质平衡和维持农业经济成果的有效策略。(C)2016爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有
Climate change is expressed in both a shift of mean climatic conditions and an increase in the frequency and severity of weather extremes. The weather extremes are often projected to have a larger impact on agricultural production than the average increase in temperature or average change in precipitation. To cope with the impacts of future climate change, farmers will have to apply adaptation measures at crop and farm level. The choice of the adaptation measures is determined by farm resources, current layout and performance of the farm and farmers' objectives. Here we present a method to assess the importance of crop and farm level measures to adapt to climate change and extreme events considering farmers' different objectives. We used a multi-objective optimization model to generate alternative farm plans and assess the impacts of crop and farm level adaptation measures in terms of farm performance on the objectives of maximizing farm economic result (gross margin) and soil quality (soil organic matter balance); these objectives were previously identified as most important to farmers. Two local scenarios were investigated: one based on a 2 degrees C increase in global temperature in 2050, including changes in air circulation resulting in drier summers, and one based on a 1 degrees C increase in global temperature, without changes in air circulation. Our results for six surveyed arable farms in the province of Flevoland (the Netherlands) suggest that average climate change improves farm performance in terms of farm economic result. The degree of improvement varies per scenario and per farm, depending on the cropping pattern. At the same time, extreme events may reverse positive impacts of average climate change, and can pose large risks. A combination of crop and farm level adaptation is needed for the surveyed farms in terms of improving both farm economic result and organic matter balance. A shift to (more) winter wheat, in systems dominated by root crops, is an estimated effective strategy to improve the organic matter balance and maintain farm economic result under climate change and extreme events. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.