Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections
Partitioning model uncertainty in multi-model ensemble river flow projections
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DOI：
10.1007/s10584-023-03621-1
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发表时间：
2023-11
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
G. Aitken;Lindsay Beevers;Simon Parry;Katie Facer-Childs
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
G. Aitken;Lindsay Beevers;Simon Parry;Katie Facer-Childs
洪水是英国目前面临的最大自然灾害，而近年来干旱事件有所增加。洪水和干旱可能对社会造成毁灭性后果，对经济造成重大财务损失。气候模型表明，降水和温度变化将加剧未来的水文极端事件（即洪水和干旱）。未来此类事件可能会变得更加频繁和激烈；因此，为了制定适应计划，气候模型预测为水文模型提供了未来水资源预测。 “eFLaG”是在英国气象局 UKCP18 气候预测的推动下为英国制作的一组未来河流流量预测。源自 UKCP18 的 eFLaG 数据集为整个英国由 RCP 8.5 驱动的单个 GCM 提供最先进的预测。对于 eFLaG 数据集中每个 186 GB 流域，QE-ANOVA 方法已用于在近期和远期时间尺度上划分两个流量分位数（Q5 高流量和 Q95 低流量）的不确定性来源。结果表明，与低流量相关的水文模型不确定性较大，而与流量指标之间保持稳定的高流量相关的区域气候模型不确定性较大。从不久的将来到遥远的未来，总的不确定性会增加，并且高度不确定的流域高度集中在英格兰东南部。
Floods are the largest natural disaster currently facing the UK, whilst the incidents of droughts have increased in recent years. Floods and droughts can have devastating consequences on society, resulting in significant financial damage to the economy. Climate models suggest that precipitation and temperature changes will exacerbate future hydrological extremes (i.e., floods and droughts). Such events are likely to become more frequent and intense in the future; thus to develop adaptation plans climate model projections feed hydrological models to provide future water resource projections. ‘eFLaG’ is one set of future river flow projections produced for the UK driven by UKCP18 climate projections from the UK Met Office. The UKCP18-derived eFLaG dataset provides state-of-the-art projections for a single GCM driven by RCP 8.5 across the entire UK. A QE-ANOVA approach has been used to partition contributing sources of uncertainty for two flow quantiles (Q5 high flows and Q95 low flows), at near and far future time scales, for each of the 186 GB catchments in the eFLaG dataset. Results suggest a larger hydrological model uncertainty associated with low flows and greater regional climate model uncertainty for high flows which remains stationary between flow indicators. Total uncertainty increases from near to far future and highly uncertain catchments have been identified with a high concentration in South-East England.