International trade drivers and freight network analysis - The case of the Chinese air cargo sector
International trade drivers and freight network analysis - The case of the Chinese air cargo sector
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2017.02.009
复制
发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
6.1
通讯作者：
Xiao, Yi-bin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gong, Qiang;Wang, Kun;Xiao, Yi-bin
本研究利用增广引力模型找出中国空运国际贸易的关键驱动因素，并运用复杂网络分析方法研究中国的航空货运网络。重力模型估计表明，国家一级航空贸易的收入弹性为1.1，而三个主要经济区的值明显更高。更重要的是，我们发现，对于中国的国际航空贸易来说，经济结构比经济规模更重要的驱动因素。这些结果表明，中国航空货运业将超过整体经济增长，经济区内的主要机场处于有利地位，有望成长为主要的货运门户。中国的航空货运需求并不像过去国内生产总值数据显示的那样高，但很可能在未来几年经历持续增长。网络分析表明，货运量集中在大都市地区的集水区，那里的客运枢纽也是航空货运基地。然而，国内航空货运目前主要通过相对较小的点对点网络流动，这表明，尽管领先机场具有巨大的增长潜力，但它们尚未成为货运门户枢纽。(C)2017爱思唯尔有限公司。保留所有权利。
This study identifies the key drivers for China's international trade delivered by air with an augmented gravity model, and investigates the country's air freight network using complex network analysis. Gravity model estimation suggests that income elasticity for airborne trade at country level is 1.1, whereas the values for the three major economic zones are significantly higher. More importantly, we found that for China's international trade by air, the composition of economy is a more important driver than the size of economy. These results suggest that the Chinese air cargo sector will outpace the overall economic growth, with leading airports in the economic zones well-positioned to grow into major freight gateways. Air cargo demand in China was not as high as past GDP numbers suggested in the past, but is likely to experience sustained growth in the years to come. Network analysis suggests that cargo traffic volumes are concentrated in the catchments of metropolitan regions, where passenger hubs also serve as air cargo bases. However, domestic air freights currently mainly flow through a relatively small point-to-point network, suggesting that the leading airports are yet to become cargo gateway hubs despite their significant growth potential. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.