Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems
Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1093/icesjms/fsv231
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发表时间：
2016-05-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Paula, Jose Ricardo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Payne, Mark R.;Barange, Manuel;Paula, Jose Ricardo
预测气候变化对海洋生态系统的影响是规划适应战略的关键先决条件，但它们不可避免地与不确定性联系在一起。识别、量化和传达这种不确定性是评估与预测相关的风险和建立对其稳健性的信心的关键。我们回顾了在海洋科学中如何处理这些预测中的不确定性。我们采用了一种在气候建模中发展起来的方法，将不确定性分解为(i)结构（模型）不确定性，（ii）初始化和内部变率不确定性，（iii）参数不确定性，以及（iv）情景不确定性。对于每一种不确定性类型，我们然后在评估和量化其相对重要性时检查当前的最新技术。我们考虑海洋科学界是否已经充分解决了这些类型的不确定性，并强调了与做得更好相关的机遇和挑战。我们发现，即使在一个相对较小的领域，如海洋科学，在对每种不确定性的关注程度上，各子学科之间也存在着实质性的差异。我们发现初始化的不确定性很少被明确地处理，减少这种不确定性可能会在季节到十年的时间尺度上带来收益。我们的结论是，海洋科学的所有部分都可以从更广泛的思想交流中受益，特别是在处理不确定性这样一个普遍问题上。最后，海洋科学应该努力使情景的不确定性成为我们预测中主要的不确定性。
Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. Weconclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.