Land use/cover change detection and analysis for Dzalanyama forest reserve, Lilongwe, Malawi
Land use/cover change detection and analysis for Dzalanyama forest reserve, Lilongwe, Malawi
复制标题
马拉维利隆圭 Dzalanyama 森林保护区的土地利用/覆盖变化检测和分析
DOI：
10.1016/j.sbspro.2011.07.035
复制
发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Y.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Munthali;K.G.;Murayama;Y.
自然生态系统继续受到人类影响的严重威胁，特别是马拉维和扎兰尼亚马森林保护区。为了帮助相关利益相关者全面了解问题的严重程度并推动趋势的逆转，使用模糊分类、基本覆盖和马尔可夫链分析技术对近过去、现在和近未来的森林砍伐水平进行了情景分析。在试图通过量化形势的严重性来引起人们的认识时，分析已经确定，不仅森林砍伐的规模令人担忧，而且在可预见的未来，这种趋势将继续下去。该分析还暗示了驱动土地覆盖变化的复杂因素。在承认人口增长和贫困对森林砍伐所起作用的同时，社会、政治和基础设施变化所引发的不断变化的经济机会对森林保护区周围农村人口的影响再怎么强调也不为过。因此，在确定了变化的方向和幅度之后，只有谨慎地采取措施来解决问题，并在提供可持续解决办法的包容性办法的基础上加以发展。
Natural ecological systems continue to be under severe threat from human influence in Malawi and Dzalanyama forest reserve in particular. To assist the relevant stakeholders understand the full extent of the problem and push for a reversal of the trend, a scenario analysis of the near-past, present and near-future deforestation levels was presented using fuzzy classification, the basic overlay and Markov chain analysis techniques. In trying to draw awareness by quantifying the gravity of the situation, the analysis has established that not only are the deforestation magnitudes worrisome but also that the trends will continue in the foreseeable future. The analysis also hinted on the complex factors driving the land cover changes. While acknowledging the roles played by population growth and poverty on deforestation, the influence of the changing economic opportunities triggered by social, political and infrastructural changes impacting on the rural population surrounding the forest reserve cannot be overemphasized. Upon deriving the direction and magnitude of change it is therefore only prudent that measures to address the problem should invoke and build on an all inclusive approach towards provision of a sustainable solution.