Timing of Vote Decision in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978–1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks
Timing of Vote Decision in First and Second Order Dutch Elections 1978–1995: Evidence from Artificial Neural Networks
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1978-1995 年荷兰第一次和第二次选举的投票决定时间：来自人工神经网络的证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
1998
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
Dick J. C. van Dijk
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
R. Eisinga;P. Franses;Dick J. C. van Dijk
一个时间序列（t = 921）的每周调查数据的投票意向在荷兰的1978年至1995年期间显示，未决定的选民的百分比遵循一个周期性的模式在选举日历。在选举前的几周里，犹豫不决的选民的比例急剧下降，之后逐渐增加。本文使用人工神经网络对这种不对称选举周期的动态进行建模，目的是估计尚未决定的选民何时开始下定决心。我们发现，他们开始决定哪一个党投票前九个星期的一阶全国议会选举和一至四周前二阶选举，这取决于选举的类型（欧洲议会，省州，市议会）。政治运动的影响和政治分析的影响进行了讨论。
A time series (t = 921) of weekly survey data on vote intentions in the Netherlands for the period 1978–1995 shows that the percentage of undecided voters follows a cyclical pattern over the election calendar. The otherwise substantial percentage of undecided voters decreases sharply in weeks leading up to an election and gradually increases afterwards. This article models the dynamics of this asymmetric electoral cycle using artificial neural networks, with the purpose of estimating when the undecided voters start making up their minds. We find that they begin to decide which party to vote for nine weeks before a first order national parliamentary election and one to four weeks before a second order election, depending on the type of election (European Parliament, Provincial States, City-councils). The effect of political campaigns and the implications for political analysis are discussed.