How host population dynamics translate into time-lagged prevalence: An investigation of Sin Nombre virus in deer mice
How host population dynamics translate into time-lagged prevalence: An investigation of Sin Nombre virus in deer mice
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DOI：
10.1007/s11538-007-9251-8
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发表时间：
2008-01-01
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Dearing, M. Denise
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Adler, Frederick R.;Pearce-Duvet, Jessica M. C.;Dearing, M. Denise
由Sin Nombre病毒引起的汉坦病毒肺综合征的人类病例是从天气条件、鹿鼠种群动态到鹿鼠中SNV流行的复杂生态级联的终点。使用文献和数学建模中的种群轨迹，我们分析了鹿鼠种群高峰和鹿鼠SNV抗体流行高峰之间的时间滞后。由于该病毒不是垂直传播的，人口迅速增长最初可能导致流行率下降，但随之而来的人口规模增加可能会增加接触率，并导致流行率上升。除这些因素外，预测的时滞范围为0至18个月，当宿主人口规模以较长的周期或较高的幅度变化时，当平均流行率较低且传播依赖于频率时，预测的时滞值较大。由于出生率而不是死亡率的变化导致的人口规模变化也增加了滞后。预测未来人类汉坦病毒肺综合征的爆发可能需要考虑这些影响。
Human cases of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome caused by Sin Nombre virus are the endpoint of complex ecological cascade from weather conditions, population dynamics of deer mice, to prevalence of SNV in deer mice. Using population trajectories from the literature and mathematical modeling, we analyze the time lag between deer mouse population peaks and peaks in SNV antibody prevalence in deer mice. Because the virus is not transmitted vertically, rapid population growth can lead initially to reduced prevalence, but the resulting higher population size may later increase contact rates and generate increased prevalence. Incorporating these factors, the predicted time lag ranges from 0 to 18 months, and takes on larger values when host population size varies with a longer period or higher amplitude, when mean prevalence is low and when transmission is frequency-dependent. Population size variation due to variation in birth rates rather than death rates also increases the lag. Predicting future human outbreaks of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome may require taking these effects into account.