Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population
Prediction Model for Gastric Cancer Incidence in Korean Population
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0132613
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发表时间：
2015-07-17
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Nam, Byung-Ho
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Eom, Bang Wool;Joo, Jungnam;Nam, Byung-Ho
研究背景预测胃癌高危人群并激励这些人群定期检查是胃癌早期发现的必要条件。本研究的目的是基于韩国的大型人群队列开发胃癌发病率的预测模型。方法基于国民健康保险公司的数据，我们分析了胃癌的 10 个主要危险因素。 Cox 比例风险模型用于开发胃癌发展的性别特异性预测模型，并且还使用独立队列验证了所开发模型在区分和校准方面的性能。使用 Harrell 的 C 统计量评估辨别能力，并使用校准图和斜率评估校准。结果在平均 11.4 年的随访期间，在 1,372,424 名男性和 804,077 名女性中分别观察到 19,465 (1.4%) 和 5,579 (0.7%) 例新发胃癌病例。预测模型包括男性的年龄、BMI、家族史、膳食规律、盐偏好、饮酒、吸烟和体力活动，以及女性的年龄、BMI、家族史、盐偏好、饮酒和吸烟。该预测模型在开发组和验证组中均显示出良好的准确性和可预测性（C 统计量：男性 0.764，女性 0.706）。 结论 在本研究中，开发了一种胃癌发病率的预测模型，该模型表现出良好的性能。
BackgroundPredicting high risk groups for gastric cancer and motivating these groups to receive regular checkups is required for the early detection of gastric cancer. The aim of this study is was to develop a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence based on a large population-based cohort in Korea.MethodBased on the National Health Insurance Corporation data, we analyzed 10 major risk factors for gastric cancer. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to develop gender specific prediction models for gastric cancer development, and the performance of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration was also validated using an independent cohort. Discrimination ability was evaluated using Harrell's C-statistics, and the calibration was evaluated using a calibration plot and slope.ResultsDuring a median of 11.4 years of follow-up, 19,465 (1.4%) and 5,579 (0.7%) newly developed gastric cancer cases were observed among 1,372,424 men and 804,077 women, respectively. The prediction models included age, BMI, family history, meal regularity, salt preference, alcohol consumption, smoking and physical activity for men, and age, BMI, family history, salt preference, alcohol consumption, and smoking for women. This prediction model showed good accuracy and predictability in both the developing and validation cohorts (C-statistics: 0.764 for men, 0.706 for women).ConclusionsIn this study, a prediction model for gastric cancer incidence was developed that displayed a good performance.