Simulating Eyespot Disease Development and Yield Loss Using APSIM for UK Wheat
Simulating Eyespot Disease Development and Yield Loss Using APSIM for UK Wheat
复制标题
使用 APSIM 模拟英国小麦的眼斑病发展和产量损失
DOI：
10.1016/j.proenv.2015.07.192
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Al-Azri M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Al-Azri M
A全球作物生产受到温度、降雨模式或强度的季节性和气候变化以及非生物和生物压力的影响。气候变化可以改变害虫和病原体种群以及病原体复合体，对作物产量和未来粮食安全构成巨大风险。由雅伦达眼斑菌（Oculimacula yallundae）和O. 1998年，与英国小麦产量损失相关的acuformisis估计为2400万英镑。作物模拟模型已被证实是发展更具弹性的农业系统和改善种植者决策的重要工具。农业生产系统模拟器（APSIM）是一个软件工具，它可以将子模型纳入不同农业系统的生产模拟。APSIM-wheat模拟作物生长和发育、土壤和管理选项。在英国或其他地方，尚未对APSIM进行修改，以纳入不同病害强度下作物生长和产量的流行病模型。因此，这项工作的目标是建立眼斑病的流行病学模型，并将其纳入APSIM中，用于在一系列疾病和环境条件下进行作物模拟。结合英国田间试验中8年（2004-2012年）观察到的病害发病率和严重程度的历史气候数据，开发了结合感染和严重程度的流行病学模型，用于预测与作物生长阶段相关的病害发展。分别测定作物生长特性、生物量和产量，并根据病害严重程度建立小麦眼点产量损失或生物量减少模型。目前的工作重点是修改APSIM，通过纳入流行病和减产组成部分来模拟作物损失，并进一步验证，以确认准确模拟了经验数据。
A Global crop production is affected by seasonal and climatic variations in temperature, rainfall patterns or intensity and the occurrence of abiotic and biotic stresses. Climate change can alter pest and pathogen populations as well as pathogen complexes that pose an enormous risk to crop yields and future food security. Eyespot disease caused byOculimacula yallundaeandO. acuformisis associated with yield losses in UK wheat estimated in 1998 at £24 million. Crop simulation models have been validated as an important tool for the development of more resilient agricultural systems and improved decision making for growers. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) is a software tool that enables sub-models to be incorporated for simulation of production in diverse agricultural systems. APSIM-wheat simulates crop growth and development, soil and management options. Modification of APSIM to incorporate epidemiological disease model for crop growth and yield under different disease intensities has not yet been undertaken in UK or elsewhere. Thus, the objective of this work was to develop epidemiological model for eyespot disease and incorporate it within APSIM for crop simulation under a range of disease and environmental conditions. Historical climatic data combined with 8 years of observed disease (2004-2012) data on incidence and severity of eyespot in UK field trials was used to develop epidemiological model, combining infection and severity, for the prediction of disease development in relation to crop growth stages. Crop growth characteristics, biomass and yield were measured separately and employed for eyespot yield loss or biomass reduction model in wheat based on disease severity. Current work is focused on modifying APSIM to simulate crop loss through the incorporation of the epidemiological disease and yield reduction components and further validation to confirm that empirical data were accurately simulated.