Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016
Collaborative efforts to forecast seasonal influenza in the United States, 2015-2016
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-36361-9
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发表时间：
2019-01-24
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Yang, Wan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McGowan, Craig J.;Biggerstaff, Matthew;Yang, Wan
自2013年以来，美国疾病控制与预防中心（CDC）每年都会举办流感季节预测挑战赛。2015-2016年的挑战包括每周对多个目标的概率预测，包括11个团队提交的14个模型。预测能力用修正的对数评分进行评估。我们将提交的预测平均到一个平均集合模型中，并将它们与基于历史趋势的预测进行比较。季节性高峰强度和短期预报的预测技能最高，而季节开始时间和高峰周的预测技能普遍较低。较高的预测技能与以往流感预测挑战的团队参与和整体预测技术的利用有关。平均集合一直表现良好，优于历史趋势预测。疾病预防控制中心和贡献小组将继续推进流感预测，并努力提高预测的准确性和可靠性，以促进更多地纳入公共卫生应对工作。
Since 2013, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has hosted an annual influenza season forecasting challenge. The 2015-2016 challenge consisted of weekly probabilistic forecasts of multiple targets, including fourteen models submitted by eleven teams. Forecast skill was evaluated using a modified logarithmic score. We averaged submitted forecasts into a mean ensemble model and compared them against predictions based on historical trends. Forecast skill was highest for seasonal peak intensity and short-term forecasts, while forecast skill for timing of season onset and peak week was generally low. Higher forecast skill was associated with team participation in previous influenza forecasting challenges and utilization of ensemble forecasting techniques. The mean ensemble consistently performed well and outperformed historical trend predictions. CDC and contributing teams will continue to advance influenza forecasting and work to improve the accuracy and reliability of forecasts to facilitate increased incorporation into public health response efforts.