Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.
Modeling lodgepole pine radial growth relative to climate and genetics using universal growth-trend response functions.
复制标题
使用通用生长趋势响应函数模拟黑松径向生长与气候和遗传学的关系。
DOI：
10.1890/10-0131.1
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Aitken
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Sierra C. McLane;V. LeMay;S. Aitken
森林强烈影响地球的碳循环，使得我们预测与气温上升和降水变化相关的森林生产力变化的能力变得越来越重要。在这项研究中，我们使用在加拿大西部的大型种源实验中生长了 34 年的黑松 (Pinus contorta) 树来模拟气候对年径向生长的影响。我们使用随机系数建模方法来构建通用的生长趋势响应函数，该函数同时纳入了当前和未来年度（生长年）、夏季和冬季气候条件下不同来源和地点气候对径向生长趋势的影响。这种方法通过说明种群优势随时间的潜在变化，以及在考虑到采样年龄和气候条件的情况下，在任何当前或未来的气候情景下，在合理的范围内指示任何地点的任何种群年增长率开始下降的年龄和规模，为传统定量遗传学种群响应函数提供了新的深度。我们的模型表明，黑松径向生长水平在生长年平均温度 3.9 到 5.1 摄氏度之间达到最大值。这意味着到 21 世纪中叶，不列颠哥伦比亚省 (BC) 南部和中部的生产力将下降，而随着气温上升，不列颠哥伦比亚省北部和育空地区的生产力将在 2080 年代后增加。相对于夏季气候指数，预计所有地区的生产率将在 2080 年代持续下降，而相对于冬季气候变量，则出现相反的趋势，暖冬带来的增长可能抵消夏季的损失。来自较温暖来源的树木，即来自物种范围中心的树木，在我们当前和未来的几乎所有气候情景模型中表现最佳。我们建议在全球其他大规模种源试验中使用类似的模型来分析相对于年度和年内气候的人口增长趋势。包含众多生物群落、物种和来源的开放获取的增长趋势数据集将大大有助于预测未来气候情景下的森林生产力。
Forests strongly affect Earth's carbon cycles, making our ability to forecast forest-productivity changes associated with rising temperatures and changes in precipitation increasingly critical. In this study, we model the influence of climate on annual radial growth using lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees grown for 34 years in a large provenance experiment in western Canada. We use a random-coefficient modeling approach to build universal growth-trend response functions that simultaneously incorporate the impacts of different provenance and site climates on radial growth trends under present and future annual (growth-year), summer, and winter climate regimes. This approach provides new depth to traditional quantitative genetics population response functions by illustrating potential changes in population dominance over time, as well as indicating the age and size at which annual growth begins declining for any population growing in any location under any present or future climate scenario within reason, given the ages and climatic conditions sampled. Our models indicate that lodgepole pine radial-growth levels maximize between 3.9 degrees and 5.1 degrees C mean growth-year temperature. This translates to productivity declining by the mid-21st century in southern and central British Columbia (BC), while increasing beyond the 2080s in northern BC and Yukon, as temperatures rise. Relative to summer climate indices, productivity is predicted to decline continuously through the 2080s in all locations, while relative to winter climate variables, the opposite trend occurs, with the growth increases caused by warmer winters potentially offsetting the summer losses. Trees from warmer provenances, i.e., from the center of the species range, perform best in nearly all of our present and future climate-scenario models. We recommend that similar models be used to analyze population growth trends relative to annual and intra-annual climate in other large-scale provenance trials worldwide. An open-access growth-trend data set encompassing numerous biomes, species, and provenances would contribute substantially to predicting forest productivity under future-climate scenarios.