A GIS-Based Model for Integrating Risk Estimations of Residential Building Damage and Shelter Capacity in the Case of Earthquakes
A GIS-Based Model for Integrating Risk Estimations of Residential Building Damage and Shelter Capacity in the Case of Earthquakes
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DOI：
10.1061/(asce)nh.1527-6996.0000350
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发表时间：
2020-05-01
影响因子：
2.7
通讯作者：
Truong, Minh-Hoang
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Nguyen, Dinh-Thanh;Shen, Zhenjiang;Truong, Minh-Hoang
本研究旨在发展一个以地理资讯系统（GIS）为基础的模式，整合住宅建筑物损坏的风险评估与避难所容量的疏散人数的风险评估。前者旨在预测地震中受损的建筑物数量，而后者则是指通过模拟地震后的疏散，每个疏散中心（以下称为避难所）是否有足够的避难场所。疏散人数，这是预测参考受损建筑物和建筑人口，被用作输入数据，估计风险的住房容量。也就是说，住宅建筑物损坏的风险估计的输出是避难所容量风险估计的输入。通过进行这种整合，所提出的模型可以提供一个综合的信息流，预测，准备和响应有关潜在的地震灾害，除其他外，通过提供地震烈度的预测，预测建筑物损坏和疏散，居民如何移动到疏散避难所地震后（疏散模拟）的模型，和数据的避难所容量不足（避难所容量估计）。此外，本研究还提出了根据每个住宅（或市辖区，日本的一个公共行政单位）的建筑面积和总人口将居民分配到每个建筑物的方法。每个建筑物的居民人数取决于建筑物的建筑面积，并且在每个chome内有所不同。这种估计方法不同于文献中使用的平均建筑人口，文献中假设每栋建筑的居民人数在整个社区中是恒定的。此外，通过确定每个房屋或建筑物中的居民数量，可以更容易地通过疏散模拟将居民从家中路由到最近的避难所来预测每个避难所中的疏散人数。然后，将每个避难所的疏散人数与该避难所的计划容量进行比较，以此来估计与避难所容量有关的风险。
This research aims at developing a geographic information system (GIS)-based model for integrating risk estimation for residential building damage with risk estimation for shelter capacity by number of evacuees. The former aims at predicting the number of buildings damaged by an earthquake, while the latter refers to whether each evacuation center (henceforth: shelter) has sufficient accommodation for evacuees through a simulated evacuation following an earthquake. The evacuee number, which is predicted by reference to damaged buildings and building population, is used as input data for estimating risk in relation to shelter capacity. That is, the output of risk estimation for residential building damage is an input for shelter capacity risk estimation. By making this integration, the proposed model can supply an integrated information flow for prediction, preparedness, and response in relation to potential earthquake disasters by offering, inter alia, predictions of seismic intensity, forecasts of building damage and evacuees, models of how residents move to evacuation shelters following earthquakes (evacuation simulations), and data on shelters with insufficient capacity (shelter capacity estimation). Moreover, this research also proposes a method for allocating residents to each building based on building floor area and the total population of each chome (or city district, a common administrative unit in Japan). The number of residents in each building depends on the building floor area and varies within each chome. This method of estimation differs from the average building population used in the literature, which assumes that the number of residents per building is constant throughout a chome. Furthermore, identifying the number of residents in each house or building makes it easier to predict the number of evacuees in each evacuation shelter through an evacuation simulation routing residents from their homes to the nearest shelters. The number of evacuees per shelter is then used to estimate risk in relation to shelter capacity by comparing it with the planned capacity of that shelter.