Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050
Evaluating decarbonization scenarios and energy management requirement for the residential sector in Japan through bottom-up simulations of energy end-use demand in 2050
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117510
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Y. Shimoda;Minami Sugiyama;Ryuya Nishimoto;Takashi Momonoki
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Y. Shimoda;Minami Sugiyama;Ryuya Nishimoto;Takashi Momonoki
使用自下而上的能源最终使用需求模拟模型，对到2050年实现日本住宅部门温室气体净零排放的脱碳情景进行了研究。所审查的设想方案涉及传播现有技术，包括高度绝缘的房屋、高效设备、高效电器、电气化和独立房屋中的建筑一体化光电技术。结果表明，脱碳可以主要通过研究方案来实现，特别是通过传播高度隔热的建筑物和高效热水器，以及为所有独立式住宅安装光伏。这一情景使2013年的一次能源总需求减少了61%。增加独立式住宅的土地使用战略对于增加光伏容量是可取的。对于实现净零能源的情景，预测的热负荷强度和人均用电量与低能源需求（LED）情景几乎相同。对光伏发电的依赖增加将导致电力供需关系失衡，由于剩余电力和赤字电力之间存在季节性时间差，26%的住宅能源需求将依赖于非电池储能，如抽水蓄能和氢能。
Decarbonization scenarios for achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the Japanese residential sector by 2050 were examined using a bottom-up simulation model of energy end-use demand. The examined scenarios involve the dissemination of currently available technology, including highly insulated houses, high-efficiency equipment, high-efficiency appliances, electrification, and building-integrated photovoltaics (PV) in detached houses. The results show that decarbonization can be mostly achieved by the studied scenarios, especially through the dissemination of highly insulated buildings and high-efficiency water heaters as well as the installation of PV for all detached houses. This scenario reduced the total primary energy demand by 61% in 2013. A land-use strategy for increased detached houses is preferable for increasing PV capacity. For the scenario that achieves net zero energy, the predicted heat load intensity and electricity consumption per capita are almost the same as those of the Low Energy Demand (LED) scenario. Increased dependence on PV will create an imbalance in the relationship between electricity supply and demand, and 26% of the residential energy demand would rely on non-battery energy storage, such as pumped hydropower and hydrogen, owing to the seasonal time gap between residual and deficit electricity.