Short-term supply and demand of graduate mining engineers in Australia
Short-term supply and demand of graduate mining engineers in Australia
复制标题
澳大利亚研究生采矿工程师的短期供需
DOI：
10.1007/s13563-019-00208-0
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发表时间：
2019
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
P. Knights
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
P. Knights
这项研究提出了一种利用与采矿“建筑和结构”资本支出的简单线性相关性来估计澳大利亚研究生采矿工程师的短期需求的方法。尽管仅实现了松散的相关性，但该方法与当前的方法具有可比性，当前的方法要么假设就业增长率，要么通过将自回归积分移动平均线应用于时间序列数据来计算就业增长率。后者可能无法充分反映商品价格周期造成的快速变化。使用新模型，可以估计澳大利亚在未来 3 年内每年需要大约 160 名采矿工程毕业生。今年采矿工程毕业生的缺口可能在60人左右，到2021年将攀升至90人。澳大利亚采矿业因此面临毕业生短缺的问题。根据澳大利亚政府的技术移民计划，采矿业将寻求吸引采矿工程师。然而，澳大利亚矿业公司本质上将与北美矿业公司争夺稀缺人才。对于涉及大量土方移动的大型露天采矿作业，该行业将寻求用毕业土木工程师代替毕业采矿工程师。由于北美缺乏毕业采矿工程师，地下金属矿可能会从拉丁美洲和非洲国家汲取专业知识，尤其是秘鲁、南非和加纳。地下长壁煤矿可能会聘请来自土耳其、波兰、德国、乌克兰和俄罗斯的外国采矿工程毕业生。在大宗采矿作业中，技术正在改变目前由年轻采矿工程师毕业的一些规划和运营角色。一些日常规划任务（例如，地层矿床的钻孔和爆破规划）本质上正在变得事务性。远程操作中心正在改变传统上由年轻采矿工程师毕业的操作角色。
This study advances a means for estimating the short-term demand for Australian graduate mining engineers using simple linear correlation with mining “building and structure” capital expenditures. Although only a loose correlation was achieved, the method is comparable with the current methods which either assume employment growth rates or calculate them by applying auto regressive integrated moving averages to time series data. The latter can fail to adequately reflect rapid changes due to commodity price cycles. Using the new model, it is possible to estimate that Australia requires approximately 160 mining engineering graduates per year over the next 3 years. The deficit in mining engineering graduate numbers is likely to be around 60 this year, climbing to 90 in 2021. The Australian mining industry therefor faces a shortfall of graduates. The mining industry will look to attract mining engineers under the Australian government’s skilled immigration program. However, Australian mining companies will essentially be competing with North American mining companies for scarce talent. For large surface mining operations involving bulk earth movement, the industry will look to substitute graduate mining engineers with graduate civil engineers. Because of the shortage of graduate mining engineers in North America, underground metalliferous mines are likely to draw expertise from Latin American and African countries, most notably Peru, South Africa, and Ghana. Underground longwall coal mines are likely to source foreign mining engineering graduates from Turkey, Poland, Germany, Ukraine, and Russia. In bulk mining operations, technology is changing some of the planning and operational roles currently conducted by young graduate mining engineers. Some routine planning tasks (for example, drill and blasting planning for strata deposits) are becoming transactional in nature. Remote operating centers are changing operational roles that were traditionally the domain of young graduate mining engineers.