The (mis)behavior of behavior analysis storage estimates
The (mis)behavior of behavior analysis storage estimates
复制标题
行为分析存储估计的（错误）行为
DOI：
10.1029/96wr03284
复制
发表时间：
1997
影响因子：
5.4
通讯作者：
J. Stedinger
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Pretto;F. Chiew;T. McMahon;R. Vogel;J. Stedinger
本文研究了使用行为分析得出的水库库容估计值对用于多年水库模拟的流入序列长度的依赖性。通常认为，使用行为分析进行的模拟（其中包含给定的故障概率）将始终给出存储容量的稳态估计（除了初始油藏条件的影响之外）。这里报告的结果表明，存储容量估计分布的平均值可能需要长达 1000 年或更长的序列长度才能接近固定值。对于某些具有高吃水和高流入变化的情况，我们表明，在收敛到稳定水平之前，平均蓄水量估计值会从最初的向下偏差转变为向上偏差。然而，中值存储估计总是表现出向下偏差，有时随着序列长度的增加而缓慢下降。我们对这些观察结果进行了解释，并讨论了使用行为分析确定水库蓄水能力时流入序列长度选择的一些影响。
This paper investigates the dependence of estimates of reservoir storage capacity derived using behavior analysis on the length of inflow sequence used for overyear reservoir simulation. It has generally been assumed that simulation using behavior analysis, which incorporates a given probability of failure, will always give steady state estimates of the storage capacity (apart from the effects of the initial reservoir condition). The results reported here show that it may take sequence lengths as much as 1000 years or more for the mean of the distribution of storage capacity estimates to approach a stationary value. For some cases with high draft and high inflow variability, we show that a significant swing of the mean storage estimates from an initial downward bias into an upward bias occurs before their convergence to a stationary level. However, the median storage estimates always showed downward bias which sometimes decreased very slowly with increasing sequence length. We provide explanations for these observations and discuss some of the implications on the choice of inflow sequence length in determining reservoir storage capacities using behavior analysis.