Can novel 'swift-certain-fair' programs work outside of pioneering jurisdictions? An analysis of 24/7 Sobriety in Montana, USA.
Can novel 'swift-certain-fair' programs work outside of pioneering jurisdictions? An analysis of 24/7 Sobriety in Montana, USA.
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DOI：
10.1111/add.15584
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发表时间：
2021-12
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kilmer B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Midgette G;Kilmer B
美国南达科他州的24/7清醒计划（24/7）要求被指控或被判犯有与酒精有关的罪行的个人避免饮酒，并接受每天两次或连续的酒精测试。我们评估了24/7计划在美国蒙大拿州的影响。从2009年到2014年中期，蒙大拿州所有被判第二次酒后驾车（DUI）的人的数据，我们描述了24/7参与者的违规行为，然后估计了24/7参与对DUI再次被捕概率的影响。为了解决潜在的选择问题，个人层面的24/7参与，我们使用了一个工具变量的方法，利用县一级的程序采用的变化。在我们的分析样本中，有2，768人因第二次DUI被捕，其中356名24/7参与者平均被监测173天（中位数=112天）。在332名受试者中，95.5%的受试者完成了酒精呼气测试，并且没有导致违反计划。在控制了个人和社区水平的协变量以及年份和县的固定效应后，我们的工具变量模型表明，参加24/7将1年DUI再逮捕概率降低至少80%。（首选车型：减少86%; 8.9个百分点），而同期因第二次酒后驾车而被捕但未被分配到该方案的一组人则相反。南达科他州美国的24/7清醒计划似乎在蒙大拿州也起作用。对违反戒酒令的酒后驾车（DUI）被逮捕者立即实施一定的但适度的制裁，似乎能够减少未来的DUI逮捕。
The US state of South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Program (24/7) requires individuals charged or convicted of alcohol-involved offenses to avoid alcohol and submit to twice-daily or continuous alcohol testing. We evaluated the impact of the 24/7 program in the US state of Montana. Using data from everyone in Montana who was convicted of their second driving under the influence (DUI) offense from 2009 through mid-2014, we described program violations among 24/7 participants and then estimated the effect of 24/7 participation on the probability of DUI re-arrest. To address potential selection issues related to individual-level 24/7 participation, we used an instrumental variables approach that exploits county-level variation in program adoption. Among 2,768 persons arrested for a second DUI in our analytic sample, 356 24/7 participants were monitored for an average of 173 days (median=112 days). Among the 332 participants monitored by breath test, 95.5% of scheduled alcohol breath tests were completed and did not lead to a program violation. After controlling for individual- and community-level covariates as well as year and county fixed effects, our instrumental variable models suggest that participation in 24/7 reduced the 1-year DUI re-arrest probability by at least 80% (Preferred model: 86% decrease; 8.9 percentage points) compared with a counterfactual group of persons arrested for a second DUI over the same period but not assigned to the program. South Dakota USA’s 24/7 Sobriety Program appears to work in Montana as well. Certain delivery of immediate but modest sanctions for repeat driving under the influence (DUI) arrestees who violate alcohol abstinence orders appear to be able to reduce future DUI arrests.
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