Spatiotemporal trends and age-period-cohort modeling of the incidence of type 1 diabetes among children aged <15 years in Norway 1973-1982 and 1989-2003
Spatiotemporal trends and age-period-cohort modeling of the incidence of type 1 diabetes among children aged <15 years in Norway 1973-1982 and 1989-2003
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DOI：
10.2337/dc06-1568
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发表时间：
2007-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
16.2
通讯作者：
Joner, Geir
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Aamodt, Geir;Stene, Lars C.;Joner, Geir
目的-我们已经调查了年龄-时期-队列效应和空间和时间趋势的发病率I型糖尿病之间的0- 14岁的儿童在Norwegy.Research设计和方法-我们包括儿童诊断为I型糖尿病在挪威在1973-1982年和1989-2003年。我们研究了年龄，日历期间，和出生队列的影响，使用泊松回归，包括霍尔福德的参数化方法，以模拟年龄，时期和队列效应之间的依赖关系，为了研究病例的时空聚集，我们使用了空间扫描statistics.RESULTS -研究人群< 15岁的总发病率为22.7例/100，000（95% CI 22.1-23.4），显示研究期间平均每年增加1.2%（95% CI 0.7-1.5%）。1976-1980年期间，在挪威南部确定了一个发病率增加30%的特定地区（P = 0.001）。此外，1964-1966年期间在挪威南部某个地区出生的儿童以及1987-1989年期间在挪威北方某个地区出生的儿童的死亡率分别为2.0倍和2.6倍，发病率高于全国其他地区结论：在研究期间，儿童I型糖尿病的发病率增加。出生队列效应的确定使用时空扫描统计，但不使用年龄，时期和出生队列建模，这种影响，在相对同质的挪威人口，表明非遗传病因因素的影响。
OBJECTIVE - We have investigated age-period-cohort effects and spatial and temporal trends for the incidence of type I diabetes among 0- to 14-year-old children in Norway.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - We included children with the diagnosis of type I diabetes in Norway during 1973-1982 and 1989-2003. We studied age, calendar period, and birth cohort effects using Poisson regression, including Holford's method of parameterization, to model the dependencies between age, period, and cohort effects, To study spatiotemporal clustering of cases, we used spatial scan statistics.RESULTS - The overall incidence rate for the study population < 15 years of age was 22.7 cases per 100,000 (95% CI 22.1-23.4), showing an average annual increase of 1.2% (95% CI 0.7-1.5%) during the study period. One specific area with 30% increased incidence rates was identified in the southern part of Norway during 1976-1980 (P = 0.001). Also, children born during 1964-1966 in a specific region in the southern part of Norway as well as children born during 1987-1989 in a region in northern Norway showed 2.0 and 2.6 times, respectively, higher incidence rates compared with the rest of the country (both P = 0.001).CONCLUSIONS - The incidence of type I diabetes among children increased during the study period. Birth cohort effects were identified using the spatiotemporal scan statistic but not using age, period, and birth cohort modeling, Such effects, within the relatively homogenous Norwegian population, suggest the influence of nongenetic etiological factors.