An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins
An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s10584-016-1844-5
复制
发表时间：
2017-04-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Krysanova, V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eisner, S.;Floerke, M.;Krysanova, V.
本文研究了气候变化对11个具有代表性的大流域径流季节性的影响，这些流域覆盖了所有大陆和广泛的气候和地形环境。基于一个由气候预测驱动的9个区域水文模型的集合，我们分析了21世纪末季节径流预测的中位数和范围，并检验了模型链中不同成员所引起的不确定性。除两个流域外，气候变化对季节性径流时间的影响很小。在许多流域，我们发现了现有季节性模式的加速，即预计高流量将增加和/或低流量预计将减少。在一些流域，水文预测显示了相反的变化方向，这抵消了总体中位数的影响，即无法得出可靠的结论。在大多数流域中，除4个流域外，低排放路径和高排放路径之间的预计径流季节性差异很小。对于这些流域，我们的结果可以得出避免温室气体排放对季节性径流制度的潜在好处(或不利影响)的结论。
The paper investigates climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality for a set of eleven representative large river basins covering all continents and a wide range of climatic and physiographic settings. Based on an ensemble of nine regional hydrological models driven by climate projections derived from five global circulation models under four representative concentration pathways, we analyzed the median and range of projected changes in seasonal streamflow by the end of the twenty-first century and examined the uncertainty arising from the different members of the modelling chain. Climate change impacts on the timing of seasonal streamflow were found to be small except for two basins. In many basins, we found an acceleration of the existing seasonality pattern, i.e. high-flows are projected to increase and/or low-flows are projected to decrease. In some basins the hydrologic projections indicate opposite directions of change which cancel out in the ensemble median, i.e., no robust conclusions could be drawn. In the majority of the basins, differences in projected streamflow seasonality between the low emission pathway and the high emission pathway are small with the exception of four basins. For these basins our results allow conclusions on the potential benefits (or adverse effects) of avoided GHG emissions for the seasonal streamflow regime.