Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions
Estimating global agricultural effects of geoengineering using volcanic eruptions
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-018-0417-3
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发表时间：
2018-08
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
J. Proctor;S. Hsiang;J. Burney;M. Burke;W. Schlenker
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Proctor;S. Hsiang;J. Burney;M. Burke;W. Schlenker
太阳辐射管理越来越被认为是管理全球温度的一种选择，但通过将阳光散射回太空来改善气候变化的经济影响在很大程度上仍然未知。虽然太阳辐射管理可以通过减少热胁迫来增加作物产量，但可利用的阳光的伴随变化的影响从未被经验性地估计过。在这里，我们使用激发现代太阳辐射管理建议的火山爆发作为自然实验，以提供第一个估计，据我们所知，由El Chichón和皮纳图博火山爆发产生的平流层硫酸盐气溶胶如何改变全球阳光的数量和质量，以及阳光的这些变化如何影响全球作物产量。我们发现，阳光介导的平流层硫酸盐气溶胶对产量的影响是负面的C4（玉米）和C3（大豆，水稻和小麦）作物。将我们的产量模型应用到基于平流层硫酸盐气溶胶的太阳辐射管理方案中，我们发现，由于太阳辐射管理引起的散射太阳光造成的预计21世纪中期的损害与冷却带来的好处大致相当。这表明，太阳辐射管理如果使用类似于它试图模仿的火山爆发所排放的平流层硫酸盐气溶胶来部署，从净上看，将不会减少气候变化对全球农业的损害。我们的方法可以扩展到研究太阳辐射管理对其他全球系统的影响，如人类健康或生态系统功能。
Solar radiation management is increasingly considered to be an option for managing global temperatures,, yet the economic effects of ameliorating climatic changes by scattering sunlight back to space remain largely unknown. Although solar radiation management may increase crop yields by reducing heat stress, the effects of concomitant changes in available sunlight have never been empirically estimated. Here we use the volcanic eruptions that inspired modern solar radiation management proposals as natural experiments to provide the first estimates, to our knowledge, of how the stratospheric sulfate aerosols created by the eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo altered the quantity and quality of global sunlight, and how these changes in sunlight affected global crop yields. We find that the sunlight-mediated effect of stratospheric sulfate aerosols on yields is negative for both C4 (maize) and C3 (soy, rice and wheat) crops. Applying our yield model to a solar radiation management scenario based on stratospheric sulfate aerosols, we find that projected mid-twenty-first century damages due to scattering sunlight caused by solar radiation management are roughly equal in magnitude to benefits from cooling. This suggests that solar radiation management—if deployed using stratospheric sulfate aerosols similar to those emitted by the volcanic eruptions it seeks to mimic—would, on net, attenuate little of the global agricultural damage from climate change. Our approach could be extended to study the effects of solar radiation management on other global systems, such as human health or ecosystem function.