Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India.
Exploratory modelling of the impacts of sea-level rise on the Sundarbans mangrove forest, West Bengal, India.
复制标题
海平面上升对印度西孟加拉邦孙德尔本斯红树林影响的探索性模型。
DOI：
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.166624
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Samanta S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Samanta S
在本文中，我们进行探索性模拟的可能演变的印度孙德尔本斯红树林到2100年的一系列未来海平面上升（SLR）的情况下，考虑到洪水和海岸线侵蚀的影响。海平面影响沼泽模型（SLAMM）是用来模拟栖息地的过渡，由于洪水和这些输出相结合的经验模型SLR驱动的海岸线侵蚀。一组合理的气候引起的SLR的情况下，被认为是三角洲沉降和约束垂直沉积物增生。在所有情况下都发现红树林大量减少：海平面上升越大，损失越大。到世纪末，如果继续目前的管理，印度孙德尔本斯红树林可能会失去目前面积的42%至80%。有管理的调整可以抵消这些损失，但代价是生产性土地和人口的迁移。
In this paper we conduct exploratory simulations of the possible evolution of the Indian Sundarbans mangroves to 2100 under a range of future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios, considering the effects of both inundation and shoreline erosion. The Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is used to simulate habitat transitions due to inundation and these outputs are combined with an empirical model of SLR-driven shoreline erosion. A set of plausible climate-induced SLR scenarios are considered, together with delta subsidence and constrained vertical sediment accretion. Significant mangrove decline is found in all cases: the greater the rise in sea level the greater the losses. By the end of the century, the Indian Sundarbans mangroves could lose between 42 % and 80 % of their current area if current management is continued. Managed realignment could offset these losses but at the expense of productive land and the migration of the human population.