The ‘little ice age’: re‐evaluation of an evolving concept
The ‘little ice age’: re‐evaluation of an evolving concept
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DOI：
10.1111/j.0435-3676.2005.00242.x
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发表时间：
2005-03
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
J. Matthews;K. Briffa
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
J. Matthews;K. Briffa
抽象的。本综述重点关注“小冰河时代”作为冰川学和气候概念的发展，并根据上个千年和全新世冰川和气候变化的新数据评估其当前的有用性。 “小冰期”冰川化发生了大约 650 年，可以在欧洲阿尔卑斯山（约公元 1300 年至 1950 年）进行最精确的定义，当时延伸的冰川比之前或之后更大。 “小冰期”气候被定义为大约 330 年（约公元 1570 年至 1900 年）的较短时间间隔，此时北半球夏季气温（北纬 20°以北的陆地区域）显着低于公元 1961 年至 1990 年的平均值。这一气候定义与阿尔卑斯冰川最近两次达到顶峰的时间（公元 1650 年和 1850 年）重叠。然而，需要强调的是，“小冰期”冰川化高度依赖于冬季降水，“小冰期”气候不仅仅是夏季气温的问题。以冰川为中心的概念和以气候为中心的概念都必然包含相当大的空间和时间变化，这是使用从公元1571年到1900年每30年的北半球夏季平均气温变化地图进行研究的。“小冰河时代”类型的事件发生在全新世早期，挪威南部至少发现了七次冰川扩张事件就是例证。这些事件为“小冰河时代”提供了更广泛的背景和新的相关性，“小冰河时代”可以被视为早期事件的“现代模拟”；未来发生类似事件的可能性会对二十一世纪的气候变化产生影响。结论是，“小冰河时代”的概念只有通过以下方式才能保持有用：（1）随着人们对冰川和气候变化的时空复杂性的了解，继续将其纳入其中；（2）通过古气候重建与气候模拟的相互作用，反映对地球-大气-海洋系统及其强迫因素的更好的理解。
ABSTRACT. This review focuses on the development of the ‘Little Ice Age’ as a glaciological and climatic concept, and evaluates its current usefulness in the light of new data on the glacier and climatic variations of the last millennium and of the Holocene. ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization occurred over about 650 years and can be defined most precisely in the European Alps (c. AD 1300–1950) when extended glaciers were larger than before or since. ‘Little Ice Age’ climate is defined as a shorter time interval of about 330 years (c. AD 1570–1900) when Northern Hemisphere summer temperatures (land areas north of 20°N) fell significantly below the AD 1961–1990 mean. This climatic definition overlaps the times when the Alpine glaciers attained their latest two highstands (AD 1650 and 1850). It is emphasized, however, that ‘Little Ice Age’ glacierization was highly dependent on winter precipitation and that ‘Little Ice Age’ climate was not simply a matter of summer temperatures. Both the glacier‐centred and the climate‐centred concepts necessarily encompass considerable spatial and temporal variability, which are investigated using maps of mean summer temperature variations over the Northern Hemisphere at 30‐year intervals from AD 1571 to 1900. ‘Little Ice Age’‐type events occurred earlier in the Holocene as exemplified by at least seven glacier expansion episodes that have been identified in southern Norway. Such events provide a broader context and renewed relevance for the ‘Little Ice Age’, which may be viewed as a ‘modern analogue’ for the earlier events; and the likelihood that similar events will occur in the future has implications for climatic change in the twenty‐first century. It is concluded that the concept of a ‘Little Ice Age’ will remain useful only by (1) continuing to incorporate the temporal and spatial complexities of glacier and climatic variations as they become better known, and (2) by reflecting improved understanding of the Earth‐atmosphere‐ocean system and its forcing factors through the interaction of palaeoclimatic reconstruction with climate modelling.