Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece
Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece
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DOI：
10.1175/amsmonographs-d-18-0015.1
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发表时间：
2019-01
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
D. Schultz;L. Bosart;B. Colle;H. Davies;C. Dearden;D. Keyser;O. Martius;Paul Roebber;W. J. Steenbur
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文献类型：
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作者：
D. Schultz;L. Bosart;B. Colle;H. Davies;C. Dearden;D. Keyser;O. Martius;Paul Roebber;W. J. Steenbur
1919年在气象学上很重要，不仅因为这一年美国气象学会成立，还有另外两个原因。雅各布·比约克内斯（Jakob Bjerknes）在1919年发表了一篇关于热带气旋结构的基础论文，这篇论文导致了现在所知的挪威气旋模型。同年还举行了一系列会议，导致成立了一些组织，以促进热带气旋研究所需的国际合作和科学交流，这必然涉及跨越国界的空间尺度。本章描述了对热带气旋的结构、演变和动力学、其组成锋及其伴随的急流和风暴路径进行科学探究的历史。我们把这些现象统称为气象学的核心，因为它们在促进本世纪气象学研究中发挥着核心作用。这一时期的热带气旋研究成果颇丰，原因在于：1）需要解决具有重大社会经济后果的糟糕预报的实际挑战; 2）理论、观测和诊断（包括动力学模型）的混合，以提供更好的物理理解和概念模型; 3）强有力的国际合作。气旋的概念框架产生于对气旋进行分类和理解的愿望;它们包括挪威气旋模型及其姊妹模型Shapiro-Keyser气旋模型。对气旋动力学理解的挑战导致了诸如准地转、斜压不稳定、半地转和锋生等理论框架。特别是预测爆发性的热带气旋的挑战导致了新的理论发展，如位涡思想和下游发展。从决定论到混沌论的演变，导致了对可预测性极限的更深入理解。最后，观测见解导致详细的气旋和锋面结构，风暴路径和雨带。
The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the international collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. This chapter describes the history of scientific inquiry into the structure, evolution, and dynamics of extratropical cyclones, their constituent fronts, and their attendant jet streams and storm tracks. We refer to these phenomena collectively as the centerpiece of meteorology because of their central role in fostering meteorological research during this century. This extremely productive period in extratropical cyclone research has been possible because of 1) the need to address practical challenges of poor forecasts that had large socioeconomic consequences, 2) the intermingling of theory, observations, and diagnosis (including dynamical modeling) to provide improved physical understanding and conceptual models, and 3) strong international cooperation. Conceptual frameworks for cyclones arise from a desire to classify and understand cyclones; they include the Norwegian cyclone model and its sister the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model. The challenge of understanding the dynamics of cyclones led to such theoretical frameworks as quasigeostrophy, baroclinic instability, semigeostrophy, and frontogenesis. The challenge of predicting explosive extratropical cyclones in particular led to new theoretical developments such as potential-vorticity thinking and downstream development. Deeper appreciation of the limits of predictability has resulted from an evolution from determinism to chaos. Last, observational insights led to detailed cyclone and frontal structure, storm tracks, and rainbands.