Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax.
Mathematical modelling of the impact of expanding levels of malaria control interventions on Plasmodium vivax.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-018-05860-8
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发表时间：
2018-08-17
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Mueller I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
White MT;Walker P;Karl S;Hetzel MW;Freeman T;Waltmann A;Laman M;Robinson LJ;Ghani A;Mueller I
间日疟原虫对疟疾控制和消除提出了独特的挑战，尤其是在药物治疗和媒介控制战略面前，有可能复发以维持传播。我们根据巴布亚新几内亚(PNG)的流行病学数据建立了一个基于个体的间日疟原虫传播数学模型。在巴布亚新几内亚的许多环境中，通过光学显微镜预测，蚊帐覆盖率的增加将使传播率降至0.1%以下，然而，如果过早取消干预措施，传播率存在反弹的巨大风险。在几种高传播设置下，模型模拟预测，现有干预措施的组合不足以阻断间日疟原虫的传播。这项分析强调了控制间日疟原虫未来的潜在选择：通过无限期地分发干预措施来抑制传播，以维持现有的公共卫生收益；或者在现有和新的干预措施的基础上继续制定战略，以推动进一步减少和消除。间日疟原虫对全球消除疟疾构成了独特的挑战。这里，怀特等人。建立以个人为基础的间日疟原虫传播数学模型，并评估巴布亚新几内亚的干预策略。
Plasmodium vivax poses unique challenges for malaria control and elimination, notably the potential for relapses to maintain transmission in the face of drug-based treatment and vector control strategies. We developed an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission calibrated to epidemiological data from Papua New Guinea (PNG). In many settings in PNG, increasing bed net coverage is predicted to reduce transmission to less than 0.1% prevalence by light microscopy, however there is substantial risk of rebounds in transmission if interventions are removed prematurely. In several high transmission settings, model simulations predict that combinations of existing interventions are not sufficient to interrupt P. vivax transmission. This analysis highlights the potential options for the future of P. vivax control: maintaining existing public health gains by keeping transmission suppressed through indefinite distribution of interventions; or continued development of strategies based on existing and new interventions to push for further reduction and towards elimination. Plasmodium vivax poses a unique challenge for malaria elimination worldwide. Here, White et al. develop an individual-based mathematical model of P. vivax transmission and evaluate intervention strategies in Papua New Guinea.
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影响因子：
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作者：
John GK;Douglas NM;von Seidlein L;Nosten F;Baird JK;White NJ;Price RN
通讯作者：
Price RN
影响因子：
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作者：
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