Long-term mortality benefits of air quality improvement during the twelfth five-year-plan period in 31 provincial capital cities of China
Long-term mortality benefits of air quality improvement during the twelfth five-year-plan period in 31 provincial capital cities of China
复制标题
“十二五”期间中国31个省会城市空气质量改善的长期死亡率效益
DOI：
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2017.10.054
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发表时间：
2018-01-01
影响因子：
5
通讯作者：
Ma, Wenjun
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu, Tao;Cai, Yuanyuan;Ma, Wenjun
过去几年中国各地严重的空气污染使中国政府认识到其对公众健康和社会的重大影响，并采取巨大努力改善全国各地的空气质量，特别是在“十二五”期间。然而，这些空气污染控制政策的整体成效仍不明朗。本研究选取中国大陆31个直辖市和省会城市作为研究背景。我们从国家或地方统计年鉴中收集了2010年至2015年各首都城市的年平均人口规模，死亡率（总死亡率和心血管疾病，呼吸系统疾病，总癌症，肺癌和乳腺癌死亡率）和空气污染物（PM10，PM2.5，SO2和NO2）浓度。空气污染物对死亡率的影响大小来自先前发表的Meta分析或队列研究。我们首先估计了每年每个城市空气污染物浓度变化导致的年死亡率。然后，我们进一步估计了空气质量达到中国环境空气质量标准（CAAQS）和世界卫生组织（WHO）指南的二级水平的情景下的死亡率效益。在大多数省会城市，我们观察到空气污染物浓度在“十二五”期间显著下降，特别是从2013年到2015年，这为公众带来了显著的死亡率效益。2013年至2015年，由于所有城市的PM（2.5）浓度下降，共防止了121，658例死亡（0.441%0）。位于三大区域和十大城市群的省会城市的道德收益大于其他城市。此外，如果空气质量达到中国环境空气质量标准（CAAQS）或WHO指南的二级水平，未来可能会获得更多的死亡率收益。我们的结论是，在“十二五”期间实现的死亡率大幅下降可能归因于中国空气质量的改善，这表明空气污染控制政策的显着成效。
The severe air pollution across China in the past several years has made the Chinese government recognize its significant impacts on public health and society, and take enormous efforts to improve the air quality all over the country, especially during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (12th FYP). However, the overall effectiveness of these air pollution control policies remains unclear. In this study, we selected the 31 municipalities and provincial capital cities in mainland China as study settings. We collected the annual average population size, mortality rates (total mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, total cancer, lung cancer and breast cancer) and concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, PM2.5, SO2 and NO2) in each capital city from 2010 to 2015 from national or local Statistical Yearbooks. The effect sizes of air pollutants on mortality were obtained from previously published meta analyses or cohort studies. We first estimated the annual mortality rates attributed to the changes in air pollutant concentrations for every city in each year. Then, we further estimated the mortality benefits in the scenarios where the air quality had reached the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. In most capital cities, we observed dominant decreases in air pollutant concentrations during the 12th FYP, particularly from 2013 to 2015, which has led to significant mortality benefits for the public. A total of 121,658 deaths (0.441%0) have been prevented due to the decrease of PM(2.5)concentrations from 2013 to 2015 in all included cities. The morality benefits were larger in capital cities located in the key regions (the three main regions and ten city groups) than the other cities. In addition, more mortality benefits could be obtained in the future if the air quality reaches the grade II levels of Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standards (CAAQS) or WHO guidelines. We concluded that substantial mortality benefits achieved during the 12th FYP may be attributed to the improvements in China's air quality, which indicated the significant effectiveness of air pollution control policies.