Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe
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DOI：
10.1126/science.abc5096
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发表时间：
2020-09-18
期刊：
影响因子：
56.9
通讯作者：
Tatem, A. J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ruktanonchai, N. W.;Floyd, J. R.;Tatem, A. J.
随着欧洲各地由于社会疏远政策和封锁措施等非药物干预措施而导致2019年新冠状病毒病(新冠肺炎)病例比率下降，各国需要指导如何在放松限制的同时将疫情死灰复燃的风险降至最低。我们使用流动性和案例数据来量化协调的退出战略如何延缓大陆的复苏，并限制新冠肺炎的社区传播。我们发现，当关系密切、现有干预措施严格的国家过早结束干预措施时，大陆疫情可能会提前5周死灰复燃。此外，我们发现，适当的协调可以极大地提高在整个欧洲消除社区传播的可能性。特别是，同步整个欧洲的间歇性封锁意味着需要一半的封锁时间才能结束整个大陆的社区传播。
As rates of new coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases decline across Europe owing to nonpharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing policies and lockdown measures, countries require guidance on how to ease restrictions while minimizing the risk of resurgent outbreaks. We use mobility and case data to quantify how coordinated exit strategies could delay continental resurgence and limit community transmission of COVID-19. We find that a resurgent continental epidemic could occur as many as 5 weeks earlier when well-connected countries with stringent existing interventions end their interventions prematurely. Further, we find that appropriate coordination can greatly improve the likelihood of eliminating community transmission throughout Europe. In particular, synchronizing intermittent lockdowns across Europe means that half as many lockdown periods would be required to end continent-wide community transmission.