Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.
Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.
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作者：
Pigott DM;Golding N;Mylne A;Huang Z;Henry AJ;Weiss DJ;Brady OJ;Kraemer MU;Smith DL;Moyes CL;Bhatt S;Gething PW;Horby PW;Bogoch II;Brownstein JS;Mekaru SR;Tatem AJ;Khan K;Hay SI
埃博拉病毒病（EVD）是一种复杂的人畜共患疾病，对人类具有高毒力。有记录以来最大规模的埃博拉病毒病疫情正在西非发生，超出了先前报道和预测的范围。我们收集了所有记录的人畜共患病传播以及蝙蝠和灵长类动物埃博拉病毒感染的位置数据（1976-2014）。使用物种分布模型，将这些发生数据与环境协变量配对，以预测覆盖中非和西非 22 个国家的人畜共患传播生态位。植被、海拔、温度、蒸散量和疑似水库蝙蝠分布定义了这种关系。危险地区居住着 2200 万人；然而，人类爆发的罕见情况强调了传播给人类的可能性非常低。自 1976 年首次发现埃博拉病毒病以来，人口规模不断增加，国际航空联系不断增加，这表明当代疫情中人际二次传播的动态将与过去大不相同。 DOI：http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001 自 1976 年首次爆发埃博拉病毒病以来，非洲各地又发生了许多其他人类疫情，死亡率从 50% 到 90% 不等。人类在直接接触感染者或动物的血液或体液后可能会感染埃博拉病毒。该病毒还会感染并杀死其他灵长类动物，例如黑猩猩或大猩猩，尽管旧大陆果蝠被怀疑是该病毒在野外最有可能的携带者。有记录以来最大规模的埃博拉病毒病疫情正在西非爆发：本次疫情中的感染人数比之前所有疫情的总和还要多。此次疫情也是首次在西非爆发，该地区不在此前已知的埃博拉病毒传播范围内。皮戈特等人。现在已经更新了关于非洲野生动物可能携带该病毒的地点以及病毒可能从这些动物传播给人类的地点的预测。因此，该地图确定了未来最有可能爆发埃博拉疫情的地区。这些新地图背后的数据包括人类中所有记录的埃博拉原发病例（“指标”病例）的位置，其中许多病例与动物来源有关。这些数据还包括过去四十年记录的野生蝙蝠和灵长类动物埃博拉病毒感染病例的位置。这些地图使用比以前的预测更灵活的方法建模，还包括使用卫星收集的有关环境因素的新信息以及对野果蝠范围的新预测。皮戈特等人。报告指出，埃博拉病毒可能在中非和西非的 22 个国家从动物传播到人类，并且有 2200 万人生活在面临风险的地区。然而，在人群中爆发的情况很少见，人类从受感染的动物那里感染这种疾病的可能性仍然很低。更新后的地图不包括有关感染如何从一个人传播到另一个人的数据，因此下一个挑战是利用现有的人际传播数据来更好地了解当前和未来疫情可能的规模和程度。 Pigott 等人表示，随着越来越多的人居住在高危地区以及往返于高危地区，这一数字比以往任何时候都高。请注意，新的埃博拉病毒病疫情可能与过去的疫情有很大不同。 DOI：http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.002
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.001 Since the first outbreaks of Ebola virus disease in 1976, there have been numerous other outbreaks in humans across Africa with fatality rates ranging from 50% to 90%. Humans can become infected with the Ebola virus after direct contact with blood or bodily fluids from an infected person or animal. The virus also infects and kills other primates—such as chimpanzees or gorillas—though Old World fruit bats are suspected to be the most likely carriers of the virus in the wild. The largest recorded outbreak of Ebola virus disease is ongoing in West Africa: more people have been infected in this current outbreak than in all previous outbreaks combined. The current outbreak is also the first to occur in West Africa—which is outside the previously known range of the Ebola virus. Pigott et al. have now updated predictions about where in Africa wild animals may harbour the virus and where the transmission of the virus from these animals to humans is possible. As such, the map identifies the regions that are most at risk of a future Ebola outbreak. The data behind these new maps include the locations of all recorded primary cases of Ebola in human populations—the ‘index’ cases—many of which have been linked to animal sources. The data also include the locations of recorded cases of Ebola virus infections in wild bats and primates from the last forty years. The maps, which were modelled using more flexible methods than previous predictions, also include new information—collected using satellites—about environmental factors and new predictions of the range of wild fruit bats. Pigott et al. report that the transmission of Ebola virus from animals to humans is possible in 22 countries across Central and West Africa—and that 22 million people live in the areas at risk. However, outbreaks in human populations are rare and the likelihood of a human getting the disease from an infected animal still remains very low. The updated map does not include data about how infections spread from one person to another, so the next challenge is to use existing data on human-to-human transmission to better understand the likely size and extent of current and future outbreaks. As more people live in, and travel to and from, the at-risk regions than ever before, Pigott et al. note that new outbreaks of Ebola virus disease are likely to be very different to those of the past. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.04395.002