Critical elevation levels for flooding due to sea-level rise in Hawai'i.
Critical elevation levels for flooding due to sea-level rise in Hawai'i.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10113-014-0725-6
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Barbee, M. M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Kane, H. H.;Fletcher, C. H.;Barbee, M. M.
为了恢复和维持生物多样性，夏威夷群岛的沿海滩涂和湿地栖息地往往得到密集管理。由于大多数沿海平原环境的低坡度，一旦海面高度超过临界海拔，海平面上升的速度和空中影响范围将迅速加快。在这里，我们通过计算SLR临界高程和联合不确定性来发展这一概念，该不确定度区分了缓慢和快速的注水阶段。我们将该方法应用于夏威夷毛伊岛和奥胡岛的三个沿海湿地，以举例说明该方法对太平洋岛屿地区湿地的适用性。使用高分辨率LiDAR数字高程模型，根据B1、A2和A1FL排放情景下的洪水概率百分比，绘制洪水区域的地图，并从高风险(80%)到低风险(2.5%)进行排序。随着洪泛率从缓慢阶段过渡到快速阶段，A1Flat情景下洪水高风险区域(占总面积的百分比)从21.0%增加到53.3%(毛伊岛南部)，0.3%增加到18.2%(毛伊岛北部)，1.7%增加到15.9%(O‘ahu北部)。同时，低风险地区由34.1增至80.2、17.7增至46.9、15.4增至46.3%。南毛伊岛的SLR可能已经过了临界点(2003年)，北毛伊岛和O‘ahu的决策者可能有大约37年的时间(2050年)来制定和实施适应战略，以便在最大的影响之前应对SLR的挑战。
Coastal strand and wetland habitats in the Hawaiian Islands are often intensively managed to restore and maintain biodiversity. Due to the low gradient of most coastal plain environments, the rate and aerial extent of sea-level rise (SLR) impact will rapidly accelerate once the height of the sea surface exceeds a critical elevation. Here, we develop this concept by calculating a SLR critical elevation and joint uncertainty that distinguishes between slow and rapid phases of flooding. We apply the methodology to three coastal wetlands on the Hawaiian Islands of Maui and O'ahu to exemplify the applicability of this methodology for wetlands in the Pacific island region. Using high-resolution LiDAR digital elevation models, flooded areas are mapped and ranked from high (80%) to low (2.5%) risk based upon the percent probability of flooding under the B1, A2, and A1Flemissions scenarios. As the rate of flooding transitioned from the slow to rapid phase, the area (expressed as a percentage of the total) at a high risk of flooding under the A1Flscenario increased from 21.0 to 53.3% (south Maui), 0.3 to 18.2% (north Maui), and 1.7 to 15.9% (north O'ahu). At the same time, low risk areas increased from 34.1 to 80.2, 17.7 to 46.9, and 15.4 to 46.3%. The critical elevation of SLR may have already passed (2003) on south Maui, and decision makers on North Maui and O'ahu may have approximately 37 years (2050) to develop, and implement adaptation strategies that meet the challenges of SLR in advance of the largest impacts.