Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target
Drylands face potential threat under 2 °C global warming target
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate3275
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发表时间：
2017-06-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Kang, Litai
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Huang, Jianping;Yu, Haipeng;Kang, Litai
《巴黎协定》旨在将全球平均地表变暖限制在相对于工业化前水平2摄氏度以下（1-3）。然而，我们表明这一目标仅适用于湿润地区，而干旱地区将面临更大的变暖风险。在过去的一个世纪里，全球旱地（1.2-1.3摄氏度）的地表变暖比湿润地（0.8-1.0摄氏度）高20-40%，而旱地产生的人为二氧化碳排放量（类似于230亿吨）仅相当于湿润地（类似于750亿吨）的30%。就21世纪而言，当全球变暖达到2.0摄氏度时，旱地（湿润地）可能会升温3.2-4.0摄氏度（2.4-2.6摄氏度），这表明旱地的升温幅度比湿润地高44%。如果全球变暖从1.5摄氏度上升到2.0摄氏度，旱地的玉米产量和径流减少、长期干旱增加以及疟疾传播的有利条件将会最大。我们的分析表明，由于主要来自湿润地区的排放，生活在旱地的世界人口中有38%将遭受气候变化的影响。如果达到1.5摄氏度的升温限制，旱地的平均升温可能在3.0摄氏度以内；因此，有必要将全球变暖控制在1.5摄氏度以内，以防止对旱地造成灾难性影响。
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels(1-3). However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greaterwarming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 degrees C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 degrees C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (similar to 230 Gt) have been only similar to 30% of those generated from humid lands (similar to 750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 degrees C (2.4-2.6 degrees C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 degrees C, indicating similar to 44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Our analyses indicate that similar to 38% of theworld's population living in drylandswould suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 degrees C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 degrees C; therefore it is necessary to keep globalwarming within 1.5 degrees C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.