China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model
China's energy and emissions outlook to 2050: Perspectives from bottom-up energy end-use model
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.065
复制
发表时间：
2013-02
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
N. Zhou;D. Fridley;N. Khanna;Jing Ke;Michael Mcneil;M. Levine
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
N. Zhou;D. Fridley;N. Khanna;Jing Ke;Michael Mcneil;M. Levine
虽然中国在2007年成为世界上最大的二氧化碳排放国，但中国也采取了认真的行动来降低能源和碳强度。本研究采用自下而上的中国终端使用能源模型，评估能效政策在中国向低排放轨道转型、实现2020年强度减排目标中的作用。研究人员开发了两种情景--持续改善和加速改善--以评估中国政府已经采取的行动以及计划和可能采取的行动的影响，并评估中国减少能源需求和排放的潜力。这一情景分析提供了一种基于最终使用技术扩散和能源需求物理驱动因素的重要建模方法，从而有助于阐明中国复杂而动态的能源消费驱动因素以及能源效率政策的影响。研究结果表明，中国的二氧化碳排放量在本世纪不太可能继续增长，因为家用电器、住宅和商业建筑面积、道路、化肥使用方面的饱和效应；随着城市人口增长放缓，人口峰值在2030年左右。这些情景还突显了政策驱动的能效改进将在实现2020年碳减排目标以及脱碳电力供应方面发挥的重要作用。
Although China became the world's largest CO2emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios – Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement – were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO2emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.