Agent-based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand
Agent-based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand
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基于主体的建模，用于对木本作物创新进行事前评估：泰国北部的荔枝
DOI：
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发表时间：
2010
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Sithidech Roygrong
中科院分区：
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作者：
P. Schreinemachers;C. Potchanasin;T. Berger;Sithidech Roygrong
本研究使用一个基于代理人的模型进行事前评估的农业创新。 该模型建立在整个农场的数学规划（MP）和扩展的方法与系统的空间表示，农户和景观的异质性，以及农户之间的相互作用。我们应用该模型在泰国北方流域研究的潜力，四个创新，以增加荔枝果园的盈利能力。成本效益分析表明，每一个创新将增加荔枝种植的盈利能力，然而，基于代理人的模型的结果表明，在目前的价格水平，这些创新本身将不足以阻止荔枝下的面积下降。该模型进行了验证，并在灌溉水供应和流动性的变化测试结果的敏感性。我们报告农民如何回应这些结果，并讨论了在泰国北方其他地区的影响。
This study uses an agent-based model for ex ante assessment of agricultural innovations. The model builds on whole farm mathematical programming (MP) and extends the methodology with a spatial representation of the system, the heterogeneity of farm households and landscapes, and the interaction between farm households. We apply the model in a northern Thai watershed to study the potential of four innovations to increase the profitability of litchi orchards. Cost-benefit analysis shows that each innovation would increase the profitability of litchi growing; however, the results of the agent-based model show that at current price levels these innovations alone would not be enough to stem the decline in the area under litchis. The model was validated and the sensitivity of the results tested for variations in the irrigated water supply and liquidity. We report on how farmers responded to these results and discuss the implications for other areas in northern Thailand.