Identifying Representative Weather-Impact Scenarios for Flow Contingency Management
Identifying Representative Weather-Impact Scenarios for Flow Contingency Management
复制标题
确定流量应急管理的代表性天气影响场景
DOI：
10.2514/6.2013-4216
复制
发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
C. Wanke
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
S. Tien;C. Taylor;C. Wanke
流量应急管理旨在改进战略交通流量管理决策过程。这项研究工作侧重于开发定量分析方法，以预测天气影响并相应地设计缓解策略。由于在战略规划阶段存在显著的天气不确定性，因此制定了概率预报来涵盖天气结果的范围。然而，为了促进战略规划过程以及特定交通管理措施的设计，需要对这些结果进行特征描述，并将其分组为少量具有代表性的情景。因此，提出了一种基于集合天气预报产品对天气影响情景进行聚类的机制，该机制制定了天气影响指标，并应用聚类方法来确定具有代表性的群组。将在各种延误缓解策略下使用流量应急管理框架对所确定的群组进行评估，以检验情景聚类机制的有效性。
Flow contingency management aims to improve the strategic traffic flow management decision making processes. This research effort has focused on developing quantitative analysis methods for predicting weather impact and designing mitigation strategies in response. Due to significant weather uncertainty present in the strategic planning horizon, probabilistic forecasts are developed to capture the range of weather outcomes. However, to facilitate the strategic planning process and the design of specific traffic management initiatives, these outcomes need to be characterized and grouped into a small number of representative scenarios. A mechanism for clustering weather-impact scenarios based on an ensemble weather forecast product is thus proposed that develops weather-impact metrics and applies a clustering approach to identify the representative groups. The identified groups will be evaluated using the Flow Contingency Management Framework under various delay mitigation strategies for examining the effectiveness of the scenario clustering mechanism.