Evaluation of a grid-based river flow model configured for use in a regional climate model
Evaluation of a grid-based river flow model configured for use in a regional climate model
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.002
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发表时间：
2011-12
影响因子：
6.4
通讯作者：
S. Dadson;V. Bell;Richard G. Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Dadson;V. Bell;Richard G. Jones
区域气候模式（RCMs）在水文模拟所需的时空尺度上对降雨的表示方面比全球气候模式有了重大改进。为了利用这些改进，我们测试了一种基于网格的水文路径模型的新实现，该模型与陆地表面气体学模型（联合英国土地交换计划；JULES）相结合，针对几条欧洲主要河流的观测河流流量，包括莱茵河、马斯河、易北河、多瑙河、卢瓦尔河和塞纳河。我们的模型包括一个网格化的陆地表面模型，该模型具有土壤湿度和径流产生的概率分布模型，以及一维运动学波动方程的离散近似，用于将地表和地下水从一个单元输送到另一个单元，以估计河流流量。该模式是由哈德利中心区域气候模式HadRM3P的每小时输出驱动的，该模式运行在同一网格上，而该网格则是由1961-2002年期间ERA-40再分析实验得出的准观测边界条件驱动的。1999-2002年期间观测到的3 h降水数据也被用作模式强迫，以提供更清晰的水文模式性能指示。本文给出了6条河流的模拟结果，并与同一时期的实测河流流量进行了比较。他们证明，水文模型能够以RCM的分辨率以一定的精度模拟河流的流量，因此在评估预估的区域气候变化对河流流量的影响方面具有重大潜力。
Regional Climate Models (RCMs) offer significant improvements over Global Climate Models in terms of their representation of rainfall at the spatial and temporal scales required for hydrological modelling. To take advantage of these improvements, we test a new implementation of a grid-based hydrological routing model coupled with a model of land-surface climatology (the Joint UK Land Exchange Scheme; JULES) against observed river flows in several major European rivers, including the Rhine, Maas, Elbe, Danube, Loire, and Seine. Our model comprises a gridded land-surface model with a probability-distributed model of soil moisture and runoff production coupled with a discrete approximation to the one-dimensional kinematic wave equation to route surface and subsurface water from cell to cell in order to estimate river flow. The model was driven with hourly output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model, HadRM3P, run over the same grid, which in turn was driven using quasi-observed boundary conditions derived from the ERA-40 reanalysis experiment for the period 1961–2002. Observed 3-h precipitation data for the period 1999–2002 were also used as model forcing to provide a clearer indication of the hydrological model performance. The results from simulations for the six rivers are presented and compared with measured river flows over the same time period. They demonstrate that the hydrological model is able to simulate flows in rivers at the resolution of the RCM with some accuracy and thus has significant potential to assess the implications of projected regional climate change on river flows.