A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach
A geographic gradient in small rodent density fluctuations: a statistical modelling approach
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啮齿动物密度小波动的地理梯度：统计建模方法
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
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通讯作者：
N. Stenseth
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作者：
O. Bjørnstad;W. Falck;N. Stenseth
使用线性自回归方案的密度依赖的模式在芬诺斯堪的纳维亚啮齿动物进行了统计研究。本文分析了芬诺斯堪的纳维亚（Fennoscandia）60° ~ 69° N纬度梯度沿着的19个微粒丰度时间序列。我们提供的统计证据表明，存在一个纬度梯度的密度依赖芬诺斯坎迪亚microtines。南方种群的直接密度依赖性明显强于北方种群。延迟密度的依赖性是显着的负整个区域，并出现跨纬度梯度恒定。整个地区的人口始终表现出二阶动态。斜向直接密度依赖和恒定延迟密度依赖共同导致了周期为3 ~ 4.5年的斜向。统计结果进行了比较，这些啮齿动物的种群动态的地理梯度在以前的研究中所作的假设和预测。这一结果与“通才捕食者假说”的预测相一致。
The patterns of density dependence in Fennoscandian rodents are investigated statistically using a linear autoregressive scheme. Nineteen time series of microtine abundances along a latitudinal gradient in Fennoscandia from 60° N to 69° N are analysed. We provide statistical evidence that there exists a latitudinal gradient in density dependence in Fennoscandian microtines. Southern populations experience significantly stronger direct density dependence than northern populations. Delayed density dependence was significantly negative throughout the region and appeared constant across the latitudinal gradient. The populations consistently exhibit dynamics of second order throughout the region. Together, the clinal direct density dependence and constant delayed density dependence give rise to a cline in cycle period from 3 to 4.5 years. The statistical results are compared to assumptions and predictions made in previous studies on the geographic gradient in the population dynamics of these rodents. The results are in agreement with the predictions of the ‘generalist predator hypothesis’.