CONGENITAL-MALFORMATIONS, STILLBIRTHS, AND EARLY MORTALITY AMONG THE CHILDREN OF ATOMIC-BOMB SURVIVORS - A REANALYSIS
CONGENITAL-MALFORMATIONS, STILLBIRTHS, AND EARLY MORTALITY AMONG THE CHILDREN OF ATOMIC-BOMB SURVIVORS - A REANALYSIS
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DOI：
10.2307/3577576
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发表时间：
1990-04-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
NEEL, JV
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
OTAKE, M;SCHULL, WJ;NEEL, JV
在所有与估算电离辐射照射后人类遗传风险有关的数据中，可能信息量最大的是由原子弹爆炸幸存者所生子女组成的队列。我们在此分析了该队列中父母暴露史和不良妊娠结局之间的关系，尽可能使用最近重新确定的父母接受剂量的估计值，即所谓的DS 86剂量。 可用于研究的有70,073例终止妊娠，但尚未或目前无法计算14770例父母的DS 86剂量。不良妊娠结局的频率（定义为妊娠终止，婴儿存在严重先天性畸形，和/或死产，和/或在出生后14天内死亡）随父母联合（总和）剂量增加而增加，但不显著。在标准线性模型下，当观察的样本限于其父母已被分配新建立的DS 86剂量的那些儿童（n = 55，303）时，忽略伴随的变化源并假设中子RBE为20，在预测的不良结果频率中每西弗特的估计增加为0.00354（± 0.00354）。0.00343）。在对伴随的变异源进行调整后，估计每西弗特这种出生率的增加为0.00422（±）。0.00343），如果中性RBE假设为20。对外来变异源进行适当调整的“一击”模型得到几乎相同的值，即0.00412（±）。0.00364）。当样本扩展到包括缺少计算DS 86剂量所需的全部剂量参数阵列的母体，但足以将先前采用的T65 DR剂量系统经验转换为其DS 86剂量，但足以将先前采用的T65 DR剂量系统经验转换为其DS 86等效剂量时，我们发现，在线性模型下，每西弗特的不良妊娠结果的估计增加比先前公布的0.00264（±）高出约31%。0.00277），假设RBE为20，调整了外来变异源后。（由于70，073个结果中有367个无法计算剂量，因此n = 69，706）。一次命中模型的对应值为0.00262（±）。0.00294）。
Of all the data sets pertinent to the estimation of the genetic risks to humans following exposure to ionizing radiation, potentially the most informative is that composed of the cohort of children born to atomic bomb survivors. We present here an analysis of the relationship between parental exposure history and untoward pregnancy outcomes within this cohort, using to the fullest extent possible the recently recised estimates of the doses received by their parents, the so-called DS86 doses. Available for study are 70,073 terminations, but DS86 doses have not been or presently cannot be computed on the parents of 14,770. The frequency of untoward pregnancy outcomes, defined as a pregnancy terminating in a child with a major congenital malformation, and/or stillborn, and/or dying in the first 14 days of life, increases with combined (summed)parental dose, albeit not significantly so. Under a standard linear model, when the sample of observations is restricted to those children whose parents have been assigned the newly established DS86 doses (n = 55,303), ignoring concomitant sources of variation and assuming a neutron RBE of 20, the estimated increase per sievert in the predicted frequency of untoward outcomes is 0.00354 (.+-.0.00343). After adjustment for concomitant sources of variation, the estimated increase per sievert in the proportion of such births is 0.00422 (.+-.0.00343) if the neutral RBE is assumed to be 20. A "one-hit" model with appropriate adjustments for extraneous sources of variation results in an almost identical value, namely, 0.00412 (.+-.0.00364). When the sample is extended to include parents lacking the full array of dose parameters necessary to calculate the DS86 dose, but sufficient for an empirical conversion of the previously employed T65DR dose system to its DS86 dose, but sufficient for an empirical conversions of the previously employed T65DR dose system to its DS86 equivalent, we find under the linear model that the estimated increase per sievert in untoward pregnancy outcomes is some 31% higher than that published previously, 0.00264 (.+-.0.00277), assuming an RBE of 20, after adjustment for extraneous sources of variation. (Since a dose could not be calculated in 367 of the 70,073 outcomes, the n = 69,706). The corresponding value with the one-hit model is 0.00262 (.+-.0.00294).