Infection by SARS-CoV-2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting
Infection by SARS-CoV-2 with alternate frequencies of mRNA vaccine boosting
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DOI：
10.1002/jmv.28461
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发表时间：
2023-02-01
影响因子：
12.7
通讯作者：
Dornburg, Alex
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Townsend, Jeffrey P.;Hassler, Hayley B.;Dornburg, Alex
COVID-19大流行最重要的未知因素之一是疫苗接种能够提供足够的感染保护的频率。我们量化了在不同的信使RNA (mRNA)-1273 （Moderna）和BNT162b2 （Pfizer-BioNTech）增强方案下，随着时间的推移，突破性感染的统计可能性。我们将抗刺突IgG抗体光密度与抗体减弱特征以及与冠状病毒地方性传播相关的相应感染概率相结合。每6个月、1年、1.5年、2年或3年增加一次抗体水平，在6年内抵御感染的概率分别为>93%、75%、55%、40%和24% (mRNA-1273), >89%、69%、49%、36%和23% （BNT162b2）。推迟更新后的助推器的管理会带来惨淡的后果。它增加了个体感染SARS-CoV-2的可能性，相应地，也增加了持续的疾病传播、患病率、发病率、住院率和死亡率。制定针对主要变异的定期全人群加强疫苗接种，有可能大幅预防并在全球广泛普及的情况下消除covid -19。
One of the most consequential unknowns of the COVID-19 pandemic is the frequency at which vaccine boosting provides sufficient protection from infection. We quantified the statistical likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following different boosting schedules with messenger RNA (mRNA)-1273 (Moderna) and BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech). We integrated anti-Spike IgG antibody optical densities with profiles of the waning of antibodies and corresponding probabilities of infection associated with coronavirus endemic transmission. Projecting antibody levels over time given boosting every 6 months, 1, 1.5, 2, or 3 years yielded respective probabilities of fending off infection over a 6-year span of >93%, 75%, 55%, 40%, and 24% (mRNA-1273) and >89%, 69%, 49%, 36%, and 23% (BNT162b2). Delaying the administration of updated boosters has bleak repercussions. It increases the probability of individual infection by SARS-CoV-2, and correspondingly, ongoing disease spread, prevalence, morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality. Instituting regular, population-wide booster vaccination updated to predominant variants has the potential to substantially forestall-and with global, widespread uptake, eliminate-COVID-19.