Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality
Impacts of regional climate change on biogenic emissions and air quality
复制标题
区域气候变化对生物排放和空气质量的影响
DOI：
10.1029/2008jd009965
复制
发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
W. Gustafson
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Zhang;Xiao‐Ming Hu;L. Leung;W. Gustafson
[1]区域空气质量模拟进行了水平网格分辨率为36公里的四个夏天（2001年，2002年，2051年和2052年），以研究空气质量的敏感性，潜在的区域气候变化在美国。为响应预测的2051/2052年气候变暖，异戊二烯和萜烯的排放量在大部分区域分别增加20-92%和20- 56%。表面O3增加高达19- 20%。这种增加主要是由温度、太阳辐射和大部分区域的云分数的变化驱动的。PM2.5、其成分和能见度表现出总体负敏感性（降低高达40%），这是由于负温度效应和正排放/温度效应的竞争。而干沉降的响应是由表面电阻的负灵敏度，湿沉降是积极或消极的，这取决于在PM2.5和降水的变化的相对优势。总的来说，净气候效应，由于气候变量的变化单独占主导地位的O3，PM2.5，湿和总的沉积物的变化，净生物源排放的影响，由于生物源排放的变化单独作为气候变化的结果是重要的异戊二烯，有机物，能见度和干沉积在几个地区。不包括异戊二烯形成的二次有机气溶胶的模型可能会低估至少20%的有机气溶胶对未来气候变化的响应在许多领域的建模。区域气候和空气质量都表现出年际变化，特别是在温度，异戊二烯排放量和PM2.5浓度方面，这表明需要进行长期模拟来预测未来的空气质量。与全球模式的结果相比，较强的区域气候变化信号可能会导致预测的气候变化局部影响更强甚至符号不同。
[1] Regional air quality simulations are conducted at a horizontal grid resolution of 36 km for four summers (2001, 2002, 2051, and 2052) to examine the sensitivity of air quality to potential regional climate change in the United States. In response to the predicted warmer climate in 2051/2052, the emissions of isoprene and terpene increase by 20–92% and 20–56%, respectively, over most of the domain. Surface O3 increases by up to 19–20%. Such increases are largely driven by changes in temperature, solar radiation, and cloud fraction over most of the domain. PM2.5, its compositions, and visibility exhibit an overall negative sensitivity (decrease by up to 40%), resulting from the competition of the negative temperature effect and positive emission/temperature effects. While the response of dry deposition is governed by the negative sensitivity of surface resistances, that of wet deposition is either positive or negative, depending on the relative dominancy of changes in PM2.5 and precipitation. Overall the net climatic effect due to changes in climatic variables alone dominates changes in O3, PM2.5, and wet and total deposition, and the net biogenic emission effect due to changes in biogenic emissions alone as a result of climate change is important for isoprene, organic matter, visibility, and dry deposition over several regions. Models that do not include secondary organic aerosol formation from isoprene may underestimate by at least 20% of the responses of organic aerosols to future climate changes over many areas of the modeling domain. Both regional climate and air quality exhibit interannual variability, particularly in temperature, isoprene emissions, and PM2.5 concentrations, indicating a need for long-term simulations to predict future air quality. Compared with results from global models, stronger regional climate change signals may cause projected local impacts of climate change that are stronger or even different in sign.