Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions
Transient climate and ambient health impacts due to national solid fuel cookstove emissions
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1612430114
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发表时间：
2017-02-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Martin, Randall V.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Lacey, Forrest G.;Henze, Daven K.;Martin, Randall V.
住宅固体燃料的使用导致室内和环境空气质量下降，并可能影响全球地表温度。然而，由于气溶胶排放和影响的空间异质性，沿着共同排放的物种，国家规模的炉灶干预计划，以减轻后一个问题的潜力还不为人所知。在这里，我们使用大气建模，遥感和伴随的敏感性分析的组合，单独评估的后果，20年的线性逐步淘汰炉灶的排放量在每个国家超过5%的人口使用固体燃料做饭。中国、印度和埃塞俄比亚的减排将导致2050年最大的全球地表温度变化[综合影响为-37 mK（11 mK至-85 mK）]，而阿塞拜疆、乌克兰和哈萨克斯坦等不太常针对炉灶减排的国家的干预措施则具有最大的炉灶气候效益。中国、印度和孟加拉国的减排对减少环境空气污染导致的过早死亡做出了最大贡献，防止了198，000人死亡。（102，000 - 204，000）（137，000 - 268，000），而乌克兰和阿塞拜疆的排放量对每个炉灶的影响最大，沿着罗马尼亚。全球炉灶排放减少导致2050年平均表面温度冷却-77 mK（20 mK至-278 mK），由于延迟的CO2响应，到2100年将增加到-118 mK（-11 mK至-335 mK）。空气动力学直径为2.5微米或更小的环境颗粒物（PM2.5）的变化对健康的影响相当于在2000年至2100年期间防止了2 250万人过早死亡。
Residential solid fuel use contributes to degraded indoor and ambient air quality and may affect global surface temperature. However, the potential for national-scale cookstove intervention programs to mitigate the latter issues is not yet well known, owing to the spatial heterogeneity of aerosol emissions and impacts, along with coemitted species. Here we use a combination of atmospheric modeling, remote sensing, and adjoint sensitivity analysis to individually evaluate consequences of a 20-y linear phase-out of cookstove emissions in each country with greater than 5 % of the population using solid fuel for cooking. Emissions reductions in China, India, and Ethiopia contribute to the largest global surface temperature change in 2050 [combined impact of -37 mK (11 mK to -85 mK)], whereas interventions in countries less commonly targeted for cookstove mitigation such as Azerbaijan, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan have the largest per cookstove climate benefits. Abatement in China, India, and Bangladesh contributes to the largest reduction of premature deaths from ambient air pollution, preventing 198,000 (102,000-204,000) of the 260,000 (137,000-268,000) global annual avoided deaths in 2050, whereas again emissions in Ukraine and Azerbaijan have the largest per cookstove impacts, along with Romania. Global cookstove emissions abatement results in an average surface temperature cooling of -77 mK (20 mK to -278 mK) in 2050, which increases to -118 mK (-11 mK to -335 mK) by 2100 due to delayed CO2 response. Health impacts owing to changes in ambient particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 mu m or less (PM2.5) amount to similar to 22.5 million premature deaths prevented between 2000 and 2100.