The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation
The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation
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DOI：
10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.015
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发表时间：
2014-12-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9
通讯作者：
Dai, H.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fujimori, S.;Kainuma, M.;Dai, H.
减少能源服务需求是减缓气候变化的一个备选办法，但其有效性从未被量化。我们使用亚太综合评估/可计算一般均衡（A1 M/CGE）模型，在各种情景下量化了2015-2050年期间建筑，交通和工业部门能源服务需求减少的有效性。有两个主要发现。首先，在450 ppm和550 ppm CO2当量浓度稳定情景下，建筑、运输和基础材料工业部门的能源服务需求减少25%，将使2050年气候减缓导致的GDP损失分别从4.0%减少到3.0%和从1.2%减少到0.7%。第二，建筑部门能源服务需求减少的有效性将高于其他部门的能源服务需求减少的相同速度。此外，我们还对不同的社会经济条件进行了敏感性分析，发现气候减缓目标是能源服务需求减少措施有效性的关键决定因素。因此，更明确的气候减缓目标将有助于制定减少能源服务需求措施的决策者。(C)2014爱思唯尔有限公司版权所有。
A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (A1M/CGE) model for the period 2015-2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.