Strategic siting and regional grid interconnections key to low-carbon futures in African countries
Strategic siting and regional grid interconnections key to low-carbon futures in African countries
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1611845114
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发表时间：
2017-04-11
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Callaway, Duncan S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Wu, Grace C.;Deshmukh, Ranjit;Callaway, Duncan S.
最近的预测表明，到2030年，非洲国家必须将目前的发电量增加两倍。我们对非洲大部分地区风能和太阳能潜力的多标准评估表明，具有经济竞争力和低环境影响的可再生资源可以为满足这一需求做出重大贡献。我们创建了可再生能源规划多标准分析（MapRE）框架，以绘制和描述南部非洲电力池（SAPP）和东非电力池（EAPP）中21个国家的太阳能和风能区域，并发现许多国家的潜力是需求的几倍。很大一部分的需求可以通过“无遗憾”选项或低成本、低环境影响和高度可达的区域得到快速满足。由于“无遗憾”备选方案在空间上具有多样性，因此需要建立国际互联，以帮助整个区域实现低碳发展，而支持最佳可再生能源备选方案的互联可能不同于为水电扩建而规划的互联。此外，互联和选择风电场以满足需求，在强风情况下将SAP范围内的传统发电能力需求减少了9.5%，从而节省了6-20%的成本，具体取决于避免的传统技术。从战略上选择低影响和可进入的地区，与没有互联的解决方案相比，互联的成本效益更高。总体结果对多个负载增长场景是稳健的。总之，结果表明，多标准的选址和精心规划的互连可能会显着增加可再生能源替代品相对于传统发电的经济和环境竞争力。
Recent forecasts suggest that African countries must triple their current electricity generation by 2030. Our multicriteria assessment of wind and solar potential for large regions of Africa shows how economically competitive and low-environmental-impact renewable resources can significantly contribute to meeting this demand. We created the Multicriteria Analysis for Planning Renewable Energy (MapRE) framework to map and characterize solar and wind energy zones in 21 countries in the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) and the Eastern Africa Power Pool (EAPP) and find that potential is several times greater than demand in many countries. Significant fractions of demand can be quickly served with "no-regrets" options-or zones that are low-cost, low-environmental impact, and highly accessible. Because no-regrets options are spatially heterogeneous, international interconnections are necessary to help achieve low-carbon development for the region as a whole, and interconnections that support the best renewable options may differ from those planned for hydropower expansion. Additionally, interconnections and selecting wind sites to match demand reduce the need for SAPP-wide conventional generation capacity by 9.5% in a high-wind scenario, resulting in a 6-20% cost savings, depending on the avoided conventional technology. Strategic selection of low-impact and accessible zones is more cost effective with interconnections compared with solutions without interconnections. Overall results are robust to multiple load growth scenarios. Together, results show that multicriteria site selection and deliberate planning of interconnections may significantly increase the economic and environmental competitiveness of renewable alternatives relative to conventional generation.