Beyond the trends: The need to understand multiannual dynamics in aquatic ecosystems
Beyond the trends: The need to understand multiannual dynamics in aquatic ecosystems
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DOI：
10.1002/lol2.10153
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
7.8
通讯作者：
G. Wilkinson;J. Walter;R. Fleck;M. Pace
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
G. Wilkinson;J. Walter;R. Fleck;M. Pace
年际变化是水生生态系统的一个普遍特征。这种变异性是生物和非生物来源的短期和长期动态的结果，包括多年变异性和长期趋势。虽然了解短期变化和预测方向变化是重要的研究工作，但对水生生态系统中多年来发生的振荡或波浪状动力学的关注要少得多。在这篇文章中，我们认为，了解这些模式的变化-除了方向的趋势和年内模式-和他们的根本原因是必要的了解水生生态系统功能在很长一段时间内有效的保护和管理。幸运的是，由于多年数据的日益可用性，统计工具的发展以及预测变化的迫切需要，该领域可以很容易地将多年动态思维纳入我们对水生生态系统的理解中。环境变化发生的时间跨度很大。水生生态系统可以导致定向，阈值，然而，
Interannual variability is a pervasive feature of aquatic ecosystems. This variability results from short- and long-term dynamics of biotic and abiotic origin, inclusive of multiannual variability and long-term trends. Although understanding short-term variability and forecasting directional change are important research efforts, far less attention has been paid to oscillatory, or wave-like dynamics that play out over multiple years, in aquatic ecosystems. In this essay, we argue that understanding these modes of variability — in addition to directional trends and intraannual patterns — and their underlying causes are necessary for understanding aquatic ecosystem functioning over long time periods for effective conservation and management. Fortunately, given the growing availability of multidecadal data, development of statistical tools, and the urgent need to forecast change, the fi eld can readily adopt multiannual dynamic thinking into our understanding of aquatic ecosystems. Environmental change occurs over a broad range of timescales. Aquatic ecosystems can cause directional, thresh-olds, However, to in