Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Estimated PDFs of Climate System Properties Including Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings
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全球变化科学与政策联合计划 包括自然和人为强迫在内的气候系统特性的估计 PDF
DOI：
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发表时间：
2005
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Sokolov
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
C. Forest;P. Stone;A. Sokolov
我们提出了修订的概率密度函数（PDF）的气候系统属性（气候敏感性，深海热吸收率，净气溶胶强迫强度），包括对20世纪世纪的温度变化的影响，以及人为强迫。额外的自然强迫，主要是火山爆发的冷却，影响PDF，需要更高的气候敏感性和较低的深海热吸收率，以重现观测到的温度变化。估计90%的气候敏感性范围为2.4至9.2 K。20世纪80年代的净气溶胶强迫强度转向正值，以补偿现在包括的火山强迫，90%的界限为-0.7至-0.16 W/m。深海热吸收率也随着有效扩散系数Kv的降低而降低，其范围为0.25至7.3厘米/秒。这个上限意味着许多耦合的大气-海洋GCM将热量混合到深海（混合层以下）的效率太高。
We present revised probability density functions (PDF) for climate system properties (climate sensitivity, rate of deep-ocean heat uptake, and the net aerosol forcing strength) that include the effect on 20th century temperature changes of natural as well as anthropogenic forcings. The additional natural forcings, primarily the cooling by volcanic eruptions, affect the PDF by requiring a higher climate sensitivity and a lower rate of deepocean heat uptake to reproduce the observed temperature changes. The estimated 90% range of climate sensitivity is 2.4 to 9.2 K. The net aerosol forcing strength for the 1980s decade shifted towards positive values to compensate for the now included volcanic forcing with 90% bounds of –0.7 to –0.16 W/m. The rate of deep-ocean heat uptake is also reduced with the effective diffusivity, Kv, ranging from 0.25 to 7.3 cm/s. This upper bound implies that many coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs mix heat into the deep ocean (below the mixed layer) too efficiently.