Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate
Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.12751
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发表时间：
2015-02
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Susanne Neuner;A. Albrecht;Dominik A. Cullmann;Friedrich Engels;V. Griess;W. Hahn;M. Hanewinkel;F. Härtl;C. Kölling;K. Staupendahl;T. Knoke
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作者：
Susanne Neuner;A. Albrecht;Dominik A. Cullmann;Friedrich Engels;V. Griess;W. Hahn;M. Hanewinkel;F. Härtl;C. Kölling;K. Staupendahl;T. Knoke
气候变化引起的树种分布变化预计将造成欧洲林地经济价值的严重损失。然而，这一预测忽略了潜在的适应选择，如树种转换、较短的生产期或建立混合树种森林。到目前为止，还没有对树种混合的影响进行量化调查，因为它可能会减轻未来生产风险的增加。我们首次使用生存时间分析来评估气候、物种混合和土壤条件对挪威云杉和欧洲山毛榉存活概率的影响。加速失效时间(AFT)模型基于来自欧洲森林损害调查(FDS)的近65 000棵树的广泛数据集，FDS是欧洲I级监测网络的一部分，该模型预测，如果假设气候条件的不利变化，挪威云杉在120岁纯林中的存活概率将下降24%。增加树种混合极大地减少了不利气候条件的负面影响，导致成活概率仅下降7%。我们的结论是，未来对气候变化下的森林管理以及森林政策措施的研究需要考虑到树种混合的这一强烈有利影响。
Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65 000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS) – part of the European‐wide Level I monitoring network – predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account.