Retrospective Evaluation of Bayesian Risk Models of LVAD Mortality at a Single Implant Center.

Retrospective Evaluation of Bayesian Risk Models of LVAD Mortality at a Single Implant Center.
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DOI:
10.3389/fmed.2018.00277
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发表时间:
2018
影响因子:
3.9
通讯作者:
Antaki JF
Antaki JF
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Lohmueller LC;Kanwar MK;Bailey S;Murali S;Antaki JF

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使用左心室辅助装置(LVAD)可以使终末期心力衰竭患者受益,但必须仔细选择患者。在本研究中,根据来自单个植入中心的回顾性数据,对先前推导的用于预测植入后1、3和12个月LVAD患者死亡率的贝叶斯网络模型进行了评价。模型在所有三个时间点均表现良好,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(ROC AUC)分别为78%、76%和75%。模型性能的这种评估验证了这些模型在个别机构的“真实的生活”场景中的实用性。
Use of a left ventricular assist device (LVAD) can benefit patients with end stage heart failure, but only with careful patient selection. In this study, previously derived Bayesian network models for predicting LVAD patient mortality at 1, 3, and 12 months post-implant were evaluated on retrospective data from a single implant center. The models performed well at all three time points, with a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC AUC) of 78, 76, and 75%, respectively. This evaluation of model performance verifies the utility of these models in “real life” scenarios at an individual institution.
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