A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity
A new method for diagnosing radiative forcing and climate sensitivity
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DOI：
10.1029/2003gl018747
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发表时间：
2004-02-11
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Williams, KD
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gregory, JM;Ingram, WJ;Williams, KD
本文描述了一种新的方法，用于估算辐射强迫、气候反馈参数（Wm（-2）K-1）以及任何GCM实验中气候对恒定强迫的响应的有效气候敏感性。该方法简单地将大气辐射通量的最大值与全球平均地面气温变化进行回归。这种方法不需要特殊的积分或离线估计，如平流层调整，以获得强迫，并消除了双重辐射计算和对流层顶辐射通量的需要。我们表明，在板模型和AOGCM的CO2和太阳强迫的方法得到的结果与传统方法得到的结果一致。对于单次积分，其精度较低，但由于它不需要达到稳态，因此可以通过运行短积分的集合来提高其精度。
We describe a new method for evaluating the radiative forcing, the climate feedback parameter (W m(-2) K-1) and hence the effective climate sensitivity from any GCM experiment in which the climate is responding to a constant forcing. The method is simply to regress the top of atmosphere radiative flux against the global average surface air temperature change. This method does not require special integrations or off-line estimates, such as for stratospheric adjustment, to obtain the forcing, and eliminates the need for double radiation calculations and tropopause radiative fluxes. We show that for CO2 and solar forcing in a slab model and an AOGCM the method gives results consistent with those obtained by conventional methods. For a single integration it is less precise but since it does not require a steady state to be reached its precision could be improved by running an ensemble of short integrations.